Visegrad countries U-turn on migration: fresh impetus for EU asylum policy?

Before the war in Ukraine, the V4’s main aims in the field of migration and asylum were to limit the arrival of asylum seekers as much as possible. This was part of a nationalist political rhetoric, embedded with many references to the Christian faith which characterizes all four members, notably Hungary. At EU policy level, the V4 rejected the EU’s mandatory relocation scheme which was based on the compulsory quotas set by the European Commission in 2015. This was in response to migrant boat crises in the Mediterranean that same year. In November 2016, the V4 put forward an alternative migration plan. The buzzwords were “flexible solidarity” and “nation-state-centered approach". In a nutshell, they claimed that each member state “should be ready to contribute in different ways” also in other words by sending financial or technical support to the Southern Mediterranean States under migratory pressure, and not necessarily via mandatory relocation quotas. Their key point was that states must establish the policies and the relevant practices to deal with asylum seekers, without any interference or imposition put forward by the EU supra-national level. Finally, the icing on the cake came on the 24th of September 2020, when V4 members rejected the EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum.

In stark contrast to previous influxes of asylum-seekers, the Ukrainian refugee crisis is showing a different kind of solidarity among V4 members – at least for now. To be sure, this shift in responses to asylum seekers is part of a more general trend towards a remarkable U-turn in policy responses and discourses about refugees by many European political leaders – including those at the head of radical right anti-immigration parties, such as the V4. The Polish Minister for the Interior, Kaminski, declared that the Polish borders are open to all Ukrainians, regardless of their legal status. The Prime Minister of Hungary, Victor Orbàn, further stated that “all Ukrainians fleeing from war will find a friend in the Hungarian State”. In spite of their previous state-centered and anti-supernationalist approach to migration management, the V4 did not pose any objection to the EU’s initiative of activating the 2001 Temporary Protection Directive which would grant refugees coming from Ukraine a residence permit, and access to education and the labour market. The activation of the Directive is in itself a remarkable turnaround in the European panorama since the European Union had indeed been in a state of deadlock for years over common action in the field of asylum. At present, Slovakia and Hungary are already implementing such a Directive. The Polish and Hungarian governments have established several reception and information centers both at the borders and in several cities within their countries.
Although rhetoric and practice are changing, volunteers and NGOs from the field report that most of these centres are poorly organized and do not work efficiently.

At this stage it is difficult to predict the future implications of the Ukrainian crisis on the overall EU asylum policy. On the one hand, it may create a new impetus for Europe to extend its security and defense mandate. Interestingly, building military capacity at EU level has been on the V4’s agenda for a long time. In their view, this is also strategically linked to the aim of strengthening the external dimension of migration management, in order to keep asylum seekers outside the EU. On the other hand, this crisis may give a fresh impetus to disputes over the EU migration and asylum policy. The V4, who until now have always rejected any quota-based redistribution mechanisms, may now start to need it to manage the growing flows of people coming to their countries. The UN estimates the number of asylum seekers from Ukraine will further increase over the coming weeks and these states are not equipped to handle such a volume of people. As a result, redistribution may turn to be the only plausible solution. Poland has just started to take the first steps in this direction. The Polish Ministry of Interior Kaminski appealed to the EU Commission for help in view of the increasing flow of refugees from Ukraine. The other V4 states may follow. Is this view too optimistic? The next events will tell us.