RETURN - multi-Risk sciEnce for resilienT commUnities undeR a changiNg climate 

Climate Change Adaptation Strategy South Tyrol

European Climate Risk Assessment

Center for Climate Change and Transformation

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Climate resilient mountain ecosystems for resilient livelihoods and mountain flagship species

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Eurac Research is a private research center​ based in Bozen-Bolzano. Our researchers come from a wide variety of scientific fields and all parts of the world.

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<table><tbody><tr><td><p>UNEP’s “Vanishing Treasures” Programme supports climate change adaptation of vulnerable species in mountain regions such as in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas (Bhutan), in the Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and in the Virunga region (Rwanda and Uganda). The Programme is funded by the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and aims to generate maximum synergy between climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation by improving the adaptive capacity of mountain ecosystems while maintaining related ecosystem services, protecting mountain flagship species who are key to ecosystem functioning, and promoting alternative livelihoods for local communities.</p><p>Eurac Research supported the implementation of the programme of its Central Asia component and related activities through the elaboration of future climate scenarios and the analysis of climate risk based on the Impact Chain methodology in the target areas of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The partnership will also promote the capacity building in Central Asia and final consultation workshops to validate the risk assessment with local experts and communities were performed. The final report is available here: <a href="https://www.eurac.edu/doi/10-57749-sm1a-b467">https://www.eurac.edu/doi/10-57749-sm1a-b467</a>.</p><p>In addition, Eurac is supporting the Vanishing Treasures Programme in Bhutan with training the Bhutan Tiger Center in conducting a Climate Risk Assessment.</p><p>In the CAMCA (Supporting Central Asian species’ resilience to climate change) project Eurac is supporting UNEP and the project partners in providing climate data and analysis for the pilot areas in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.</p><p>Eurac Research is the contractor and responsible for the climate risk analysis in the Central Asia regions, in Bhutan and withing the CAMCA project under the technical supervision of UNEP and the programme advisors, and in close cooperation with designated implementing partners.<br></p><p><u>Contact person: Kathrin Renner (kathrin.renner@eurac.edu)</u><br></p><p>Website: <a href="https://vanishingtreasures.org/">https://vanishingtreasures.org/</a></p></td></tr></tbody></table>

<p>UNEP’s “Vanishing Treasures” Programme supports climate change adaptation of vulnerable species in mountain regions such as in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas (Bhutan), in the Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan) and in the Virunga region (Rwanda and Uganda). The Programme is funded by the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg and aims to generate maximum synergy between climate change adaptation and biodiversity conservation by improving the adaptive capacity of mountain ecosystems while maintaining related ecosystem services, protecting mountain flagship species who are key to ecosystem functioning, and promoting alternative livelihoods for local communities.</p><p>Eurac Research supports the implementation of the programme of its Central Asia component and related activities through the elaboration of future climate scenarios and the analysis of climate risk based on the Impact Chain methodology in the target areas of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The partnership will also promote the capacity building in Central Asia and final consultation workshops to validate the risk assessment with local experts and communities will be performed.</p><p>Eurac Research is the contractor and responsible for the climate risk analysis in the Central Asia regions under the technical supervision of UNEP and the programme advisors, and in close cooperation with designated implementing partners.</p><p><br>Contact person: Alice Crespi alice.crespi@eurac.edu<br></p>

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<table><tbody><tr><td><table><tbody><tr><td><p>The Climate and Disaster Research Group of Eurac Research is part of an international consortium including Humboldt University in Berlin (HUB), the Snow Leopard Trust (SLT) and Ilbirs Public Foundation in Kyrgyzstan, and ANCOT in Tajikistan, as well as key stakeholders such as Global Snow Leopard and Ecosystem Protection Programme (GSLEP). The cooperation aims at training wildlife managers in protected areas in climate-smart wildlife conservation and supporting adaptive actions for local communities facing the impacts of climate change. Eurac Research was responsible of the development of climate change scenarios and the climate risk assessment in the case-study regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.</p><p><br></p><p>In particular, the activities of Eurac were organised in six Work Packages (WPs):</p><ul><li>WP1 – Historical climate data analysis: analysis of past and current climate based on local sources and global products</li><li>WP2 – Processing of scenarios: collection and calibration of climate projections from the state-of-the-art climate models and for different emission scenarios</li><li>WP3 – Development of climate scenarios: assessment of future climate at regional and local levels</li><li>WP4 – Data, tools and capacity building: data provision, processing tools, technical guidelines to local services</li><li>WP5 – Climate risk: implementation of impact chains and climate risk assessment for the two case-study areas</li><li>WP6 – Reporting: final project report</li><li>WP7 – Supporting Climate Risk Assessment Bhutan</li><li>WP8 – CAMCA Climate Change scenarios</li></ul><p><br></p><p>Activities carried out until Aug-2023:</p><ul><li><ul><li>Overview of climate observations for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan</li><li>Collection of climate data for past and present climate from global and national products based on both observations and reanalyses</li><li>Evaluation and intercomparison of collected products</li><li>Assessment of past and current climate features</li></ul></li><li><ul><li>Collection of CMIP6 projections for the area based on two different scenarios</li><li>Assessment of climate model projections over Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan</li><li>Evaluation of options and limitations in performing the downscaling</li><li>Collection of bias-adjusted CMIP6 simulations at 1-km provided by CHELSA initiative to derive local climate scenarios</li><li>Evaluation of the suitability of additional collected products to perform the bias-adjustment of regional scenarios and their added value</li></ul></li><li><ul><li>Regional and local climate change scenarios were derived for two target periods and agreed shared socio-economic pathways</li><li>Trends in temperature and precipitation were assessed</li><li>Specific climate-related hazard indices were computed and analyzed at regional scale</li><li>Finalisation of the regional and local climate scenarios</li><li>Integration and analysis of further climate-related hazards in support to the risk assessment</li></ul></li><li><ul><li>Meetings with partners and experts from Hydromet</li><li>Climate data were shared with partners using them to run the species distribution model</li><li>Creation of data archives and sharing codes for processing and deriving climate scenarios</li><li>Writing guidelines and recommendations</li><li>Final workshop with the local Hydromet agencies to discuss and share results</li></ul></li><li><ul><li>Implementation of the Impact Chains in the two case-study regions</li><li>Collection of relevant data for performing the local risk assessment</li><li>Definition of reference spatial units for the development of climate risk assessment</li><li>Local community workshops in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan</li><li>Finalisation of the climate risk assessment</li></ul></li><li><ul><li>Report writing</li><li>Finalization of the report</li><li>One conference contribution</li></ul></li><li>WP7:<ul><li>Conducted one inception meeting and two training sessions</li><li>Provided supporting materials to conduct the Climate Risk Assessment</li></ul></li><li>WP8:<ul><li>Collected and evaluated observation data</li><li>Collected CMIP6 projections for areas outside of Vanishing Treasures area</li><li>Computed relevant climate indicators for the entire region as well as pilot areas</li><li>Analysed current and future trends under selected scenarios and different future peroids</li><li>Presented preliminary results to UNEP and CAMCA project partners</li></ul></li></ul><p><br></p><p>Activities foreseen Sept-Dec 2023:</p><ul><li>WP7:<ul><li>Provide support to BTC in conducting the Climate Risk Assessment</li><li>Supporting BTC with consultations/validation workshops</li><li>Provided support in reporting the analysis and results</li></ul></li><li>WP8:<ul><li>Compute additional climate indicators as needed by project partners</li><li>Produce summary presentation, maps and graphs</li><li>Write final report<br></li></ul></li></ul><p><br></p></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table>

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