PEOPLEMatteo Prina

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Matteo Prina

Research Group Leader
Institute for Renewable Energy

T +39 0471 055 587

matteogiacomo.prina@eurac.edu

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3240-9156

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About

Energy system modeling
Optimization algorithms
Artificial intelligence

Short Bio

Dr. Matteo Giacomo Prina is Group Leader of the Overall Energy System Modelling and E-Mobility group at the Institute for Renewable Energy, Eurac Research (Bolzano, Italy). He holds a Ph.D. in Energy and Nuclear Science and Technology from Politecnico di Milano, with a thesis on renewable energy high penetration scenarios using bottom-up modeling.

Since joining Eurac in 2014, Dr. Prina has advanced the field of energy system modeling by integrating artificial intelligence, optimization algorithms, and participatory planning frameworks to improve the robustness and comprehensibility of energy transition scenarios. His work focuses on supporting authorities in identifying and implementing clean energy transition strategies, with a strong emphasis on coupling the transport sector with the broader energy system to ensure integrated, resilient planning. A recent line of research explores AI-enhanced surrogate models for uncertainty analysis in large-scale energy systems, enabling faster, more transparent, and uncertainty-aware decision-making processes.

Dr. Prina currently coordinates several European and national research projects, including:

LIFE PLANtoACT (PI, 1.75M€, https://www.eurac.edu/en/projects/istituto-per-le-energie-rinnovabili/plantoact) — capacity-building for regions and municipalities in implementing clean energy transition strategies;
V2G-BOOST (PI, https://www.eurac.edu/en/projects/v2g-boost) EFRE project on vehicle-to-grid innovation;
AIchargeMAP (PI, on AI for charging station expansion);
IOMSES (PI, PNRR project on integrated optimization of mobility and energy systems).

He was recently awarded the Junior Research Award Südtirol/Alto Adige 2025, https://news.provincia.bz.it/it/news/junior-research-award-2025-a-matteo-prina, the EUREGIO Young Researcher Award (2021) and the National Scientific Qualification (2024) as Associate Professor in Fluid Machinery, Energy Systems, and Power Generation.

Dr. Prina has authored over 45 peer-reviewed publications (h-index 22, Scopus), including landmark works on model comparison, multi-objective optimization, and AI-driven surrogate modeling for energy systems. He actively contributes to the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (OpenMod) and has served as Scientific Advisor and reviewer for leading journals such as Nature Energy, Applied Energy, and Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

Links to external profiles:

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Matteo-Prina

https://scholar.google.it/citations?user=i_GqXEsAAAAJ&hl=it

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3240-9156

https://www.linkedin.com/in/matteo-giacomo-prina-999248b/

Scientific Publications

Journal article2026

Deep learning surrogate model to explain decision variable synergies in energy system modelling

Prina MG, Pelizzoni C, Judson M, McPherson M, Menapace A, Manzolini G, Sparber W

Wolfram Sparber, Andrea Menapace, Matteo Prina

Energy system models are powerful tools for planning the low-carbon transition. They identify optimal technology portfolios but rarely explain why certain combinations outperform others. Understanding decision variable synergies across multiple sectors remains a key gap in the literature. This study addresses that gap with a two-stage methodology applied to the Piemonte region (Italy) for 2050, using 17 decision variables and two objective functions (total annual costs and CO₂ emissions). In the first stage, an expert-based analysis of six electrification technologies is conducted using the EPLANopt model. It reveals a fundamental behavioral dichotomy: heat pumps reduce CO₂ independently of grid decarbonization, while Power-to-X technologies require an effective renewable share above approximately 50% to yield a net environmental benefit. In the second stage, a deep learning surrogate model trained on thousands EnergyPLAN simulations enables systematic sensitivity and interaction analysis across all 17 variables. Explainability artificial intelligence methods identify solar capacity and synthetic gas as the dominant variables. Pairwise analysis across all 136 variable combinations reveals a dominant PV surplus–Power-to-Gas valorisation chain. Third-order analysis shows that battery storage acts as a critical mediator between PV generation and Power-to-Gas conversion, producing emergent synergies that cannot be decomposed into pairwise effects. These findings provide a physically interpretable, data-driven basis for sequencing technology deployments in regional energy planning.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.segy.2026.100246

Journal article2026

Impact of sufficiency on achieving the EU's 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets

Schau Em, Golinucci N, Beltrami F, Rocco MV, Prina MG, Rinaldi L, Sparber W

Wolfram Sparber, Filippo Beltrami, Matteo Prina

Project: EU H2020 FULFILL - Fundamental Decarbonisation Through Sufficiency By Lifestyle Changes

The European Union (EU) is legally bound to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, but current greenhouse gas (GHG) trajectories indicate that this target may be missed. While technological efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployment are central to climate strategies, lifestyle-based sufficiency measures remain underexplored. This study assesses the GHG reduction potential of six energy sufficiency measures across five EU Member States—Denmark, France, Germany, Italy and Latvia—and evaluates their contribution to narrowing policy-relevant emissions gaps in National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) trajectories.

Using the MARIO (Macroeconomic Assessment of Resource Inputs-Outputs) framework, we apply a scenario-based modelling approach comparing sufficiency scenarios against both linear projections and the European Environment Agency’s “With Existing Measures” (WEM) baseline. Emission reductions are calculated using delta (absolute difference) and factor (relative ratio) metrics to establish upper and conservative bounds. Sensitivity analyses assess baseline selection.

Sufficiency measures, particularly dietary change and reduced aviation demand, show the highest mitigation potential. By 2030, the six measures reduce emissions by up to 170 Mt CO₂e across the five countries, increasing to 650 Mt CO₂e by 2050. Relative to 1990 levels, this corresponds to reductions of 0.9–4.4 % by 2030 and 1.1–16 % by 2050, depending on methodological boundary conditions. While sufficiency alone does not achieve net zero, it materially narrows the emissions gap relative to NECP trajectories, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors such as food systems and aviation.

Sufficiency therefore offers a bounded but policy-relevant complement to technological decarbonisation and warrants systematic integration into EU climate governance frameworks.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101791

Journal article2025

A Composite Indicator for Assessing Upscaled Energy Sufficiency and Sustainable Prosperity in the European Union

Beltrami F, Schau EM., Prina MG, Sparber W

Wolfram Sparber, Erwin Schau, Filippo Beltrami, Matteo Prina

Project: EU H2020 FULFILL - Fundamental Decarbonisation Through Sufficiency By Lifestyle Changes

The reliance on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a measure of economic success has been criticized for neglecting environmental and social dimensions of well-being. To address this limitation, this paper develops an adapted version of the Sustainable Prosperity Index (SPI), inspired by Jackson and Victor (2020) and applied to the European Union (EU). The study is motivated by the need for a holistic sustainability metric that explicitly incorporates energy sufficiency—an aspect often overlooked in beyond-GDP indices. Using a composite indicator approach, we construct the SPI by integrating economic, environmental, and social indicators, with a specific focus on energy sufficiency within four key high-energy consumption domains: food, transport, housing, and consumer goods. The SPI is computed for all EU countries under a Reference Scenario and multiple Sufficiency Scenarios to assess the potential impact of upscaled sufficiency measures on sustainability performance. Our results show that energy sufficiency measures can enhance EU countries' sustainability performance, with SPI improvements for the 5 analysed countries (Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and Latvia) ranging between 1.2% and 2.3%. Countries with higher baseline resource consumption tend to experience the most pronounced gains. The findings highlight the potential of sufficiency-driven policies to complement decarbonization strategies by reducing overall energy demand.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.13044/j.sdi.d2.0558

Journal article2025

Advancing renewable energy community planning through integrated sector-coupling and economies of scale

Casalicchio V, Barchi G, Calabria F, Manzolini G, Prina MG, Moser D

Grazia Barchi, Matteo Prina, Valeria Casalicchio

Project: EU FESR V2G-BOOST - developing and expanding Vehicle-to-Grid decarBOnization Option for advanced energy innovation in South Tyrol

As the world transitions towards renewable energy sources, optimizing energy sharing within communities has emerged as a key strategy for sustainability and cost-efficiency. In this paper, we present a comprehensive simulation model designed to optimize energy sharing among households and municipal buildings within a renewable energy community setting. Our model integrates various energy sectors, including electricity, heating, cooling, domestic hot water, and transportation, using a bottom-up approach and linear programming. Drawing upon existing frameworks and methodologies, we conduct a case study in a hypothetical small Italian community to demonstrate the potential of our simulation model in promoting energy efficiency and sustainability. We analyze the economic and environmental impacts of different energy optimization strategies in various scenarios, including sector coupling and collaborative energy sharing. Our findings reveal that integrating various energy demands and utilizing economies of scale in energy communities can lead to significant bill savings. With sector coupling alone, savings exceed 35 %, while combining sector coupling with energy sharing results in over 43 % savings, achieved without significantly increasing installed capacity, but with a more efficient distribution, which also reduces the total investment cost by around 32 % due to economies of scale.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.125942

Journal article2025

Bridging the Industrial Data Gap: Top-down Approach from National Statistics to Site-Level Energy Consumption Data

Zazzera Bernelli E, Prina MG, Marchetti R, Misconel S, Manzolini G, Sparber W

Riccardo Marchetti, Wolfram Sparber, Matteo Prina

Project: PNRR iNEST - Interconnected Nord-Est Innovation Ecosystem

Detailed data on hard-to-abate industrial sectors is crucial for developing targeted decarbonization measures in energy system modeling, yet such information is rarely available through open sources. This paper presents a top-down methodology to estimate detailed industrial site-level energy and emissions databases by integrating and expanding publicly available data. The methodology addresses three key challenges: (1) the disaggregation of national energy consumption data to site level, (2) the categorization of process heat by four temperature ranges (<100°C, 100°C-500°C, 500°C-1000°C, and >1000°C) and direct use of electricity, and (3) the integration of process emissions from feedstock use in hard-to-abate industrial sectors. The approach is demonstrated through application to the Italian industrial sector for the year 2022, resulting in a database that documents site-specific consumption across seven energy sources: solid fossil fuels, manufactured gases, oil and petroleum products, natural gas, biofuels, non-renewable wastes, naphtha and electricity. The method can be replicated for other European countries, providing researchers and policymakers with a standardized approach to create detailed industrial energy databases. Results show that the chemical and petrochemical sector dominates the industrial energy landscape of Italy, followed by iron and steel, non-metallic minerals, and paper and pulp. The geographical distribution reveals a concentration of major industrial facilities in northern Italy, with notable exceptions including significant steel production in Taranto (south) and petrochemical complexes in Sicily and Sardinia.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2025.111365

Journal article2025

Electrification and flexibility of process heat in energy system modelling: A review

Knorr L, Buchenau N, Schlosser F, Divkovic D, Prina MG, Meschede H

Matteo Prina

Achieving climate targets requires sustainable solutions for industrial process heat, a sector that is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. This study systematically reviews how energy system models address the heat decarbonisation of industrial processes since 2018. The study focuses on the representation of direct and indirect electrification, technology options and the role of energy flexibility in the modelling of the transition to sustainable energy systems. The analysis reveals a preference for direct electrification in literature, while also exploring the potential of indirect electrification using hydrogen. Although flexibility is recognised as crucial, research specifically targeting industrial process heat flexibility remains limited. The results show that further research into the electrification potential at process level, an examination of the different modelling approaches and studies with a regional focus are needed to close these gaps and enable a comprehensive, flexibility-oriented transition to sustainable industrial heat generation.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2025.115698

Journal article2025

Energy modelling challenges for the full decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors

Groppi D, Pastore LM, Nastasi B, Prina MG, Astiaso Garcia D, de Santoli L

Matteo Prina

Many Countries have set extremely ambitious targets to speed up the energy transition and reach zero emission by 2050. This has gained even more important motifs in light of the recent geo-political events and the energy crisis that have been shaking the world balance and messing with the energy agendas of many Countries, especially those with a high reliance on imported fossil fuels. Thus, it has become ever more important to find solutions for the decarbonisation of every economic sector including also the “hard-to-abate” ones. Different solutions have been identified for the decarbonisation of such sectors that for their heterogeneity and specific requirements need sometimes unique technologies. Most proposed solutions entails a tighter connection to the power system either through direct or indirect electrification. This research wants to shade light on the most promising technologies, their impact and potential synergies with the entire energy system thus supporting Sustainable Development Goals 7, 8, 9 and 13. Furthermore, this review also discuss how the decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors is analysed in energy system modelling for energy planning purposes, what are the most used approaches and what each of them entails, critically discussing and analysing the main challenges while offering potential solutions to tackle them.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2024.115103

Journal article2025

Enhancing the impact of energy system modeling on regional policy: a case study of knowledge exchange in Piemonte Region, Italy

D’Alonzo V, Prina MG, Guiot E, Baretti F, De Nigris S, Nuvoli G, Beltrami F, Dalle Nogare G,

Giovanni Dalle Nogare, Daniele Vettorato, Wolfram Sparber, Filippo Beltrami, Samuele Zilio, Claudio Zandonella Callegher, Matteo Prina

Energy system modeling has become a critical tool for guiding energy transition plans at different administrative levels, yet a persistent gap exists between modeling outputs and practical policy implementation. This paper presents a novel co-creation approach applied for the Piemonte Region, Italy, that successfully bridges this divide through structured knowledge exchange between researchers and public officers. Using the EPLANopt model—which combines multi-objective evolutionary algorithms with EnergyPLAN simulation software—we developed optimized deep decarbonization scenarios for the regional energy system for 2030, 2040, and 2050. The modeling framework integrated all major energy sectors (electricity, heating, transportation, and industry) while comprehensively evaluating various renewable technologies, including different photovoltaic (PV) configurations, wind power, hydrogen production, energy storage systems, and efficiency measures. Through geographic information systems-based spatial analysis, we identified and quantified the technical potential of renewable energy sources across the region, incorporating territorial constraints and environmental considerations. The participatory approach fostered continuous dialogue between modelers and regional authority, resulting in scenarios that better reflect local priorities, constraints, and implementation capacity. Our findings demonstrate that this co-creation methodology leads to more robust and feasible energy transition scenarios, offering targeted recommendations for technology deployment with spatial and temporal specificity. Key actions include expanding rooftop PVs, establishing agrivoltaics regulations, improving energy efficiency in older buildings, investing in storage and flexible energy systems, promoting industrial decarburization, and maximizing local economic benefits through support for regional supply chains.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1088/2753-3751/adfb7f

Report2025

Klimarisiken und Anpassung - Wege zu einem klimaresilienten Südtirol

Zebisch M, Pedoth L, Pörnbacher M, Renner K, Fritsch U, Alberton M, Bertoldi G, Bisignano J,

Chiara Pellegrini, Mariachiara Alberton, Giacomo Bertoldi, Federica Maino, Uta Fritsch, Andreas Hilpold, Andrea Omizzolo, Wolfram Sparber, Nikolaus Obojes, Lydia Pedoth, Kathrin Renner, Marc Zebisch, Alice Crespi, Philipp Corradini, Giacomo Strapazzon, Chiara Crippa, Christian Hoffmann, Matteo Prina, Giulia Roveri

Project: Climate Change Adaptation Strategy South Tyrol, 5a/2026 Environmental policy and law in multilevel systems, Eco-Hydrology of alpine watersheds

Der Bericht „Klimarisiken und Anpassung – Wege zu einem klimaresilienten Südtirol“ untersucht die möglichen Klimafolgen und Klimarisiken sowie deren Ursachen für Südtirol für neun Sektoren und schlägt Strategien und Maßnahmenbündel für eine notwendige Klimaanpassung vor. Er soll die Klimaanpassungsstrategie des Landes vorbereiten sowie informieren und setzt daher die Schwerpunkte auf Klimarisiken, die weite Teile Südtirols oder mehrere Systeme, Sektoren oder Handlungsfelder gleichzeitig betreffen und sich kaskadenartig ausbreiten. Außerdem fokussiert diese Studie auf Anpassungsstrategien und Maßnahmen (wie z.B. Politikinstrumente), die auf der Ebene der Provinz eingeführt und umgesetzt werden sollten, und weniger auf technische Maßnahmen in einzelnen Handlungsfeldern.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.57749/4ehb-1753

Report2025

Rischi climatici e adattamento - Verso un Alto Adige resiliente al clima

Zebisch M, Pedoth L, Pörnbacher M, Renner K, Fritsch U, Alberton M, Bertoldi G, Bisignano J,

Project: Climate Change Adaptation Strategy South Tyrol

Il documento “Rischi climatici e adattamento – Verso un Alto Adige resiliente al clima” analizza i possibili impatti, i rischi climatici e le loro cause per l’Alto Adige in nove settori e propone strategie e pacchetti di misure per il necessario adattamento. Lo scopo è quello di preparare e informare la strategia di adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici della Provincia; pertanto, si concentra sui rischi climatici che interessano vaste zone dell'Alto Adige o che colpiscono contemporaneamente diversi sistemi, settori o campi d'azione e si diffondono a cascata. Inoltre, questo studio si concentra sulle strategie e sulle misure di adattamento (come gli strumenti politici) che dovrebbero essere introdotte e implementate a livello provinciale, piuttosto che sulle misure tecniche nei singoli campi di azione.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.57749/q8y8-tv70

Journal article2025

The role of sufficiency measures in a decarbonizing Europe

Golinucci N, Rocco MV, Prina MG, Beltrami F, Rinaldi F, Schau Meissner EA, Sparber W

Wolfram Sparber, Filippo Beltrami, Matteo Prina

Project: EU H2020 FULFILL - Fundamental Decarbonisation Through Sufficiency By Lifestyle Changes

Europe's ambitious climate goals highlight the importance of combining energy policies with technological decarbonization; however, these efforts alone may not achieve the necessary emissions reductions. Existing models for low-carbon transitions often focus on technological interventions, without fully integrating the decarbonization potential of behavioural shifts towards sufficient consumption. A comprehensive model that incorporates both sufficiency and technological measures, with realistic adoption rates for sufficiency actions, is essential to effectively evaluate climate targets' feasibility. This study introduces a multi-regional, multi-sectoral model, based on an input-output framework, to quantify the decarbonization impacts of sufficiency measures on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and employment under European Union (EU) specific scenarios through 2050. The model evaluates six sufficiency measures: reductions in air travel, personal living space, and vehicle size; increased product and space sharing; greater cycling adoption; and a shift towards plant-based diets. Combined, these measures may reduce EU annual GHG emissions by up to 13 %, yielding global cumulative savings of 13.8 Gt CO₂eq by 2050, while having moderate first-order effects on GDP and employment. However, most of the emissions reductions stem from dietary changes and reduced air travel, while other measures – such as car downsizing and cycling – show limited effects due to their dependence on concurrent projected electrification and decarbonization of the energy system. The findings indicate that dietary changes and reductions in air travel provide the most substantial and resilient emissions reductions, making them critical priorities for policy support.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108645

Journal article2024

High-Resolution Monitored Data Analysis of EV Public Charging Stations for Modelled Grid Impact Validation

Estrada Poggio A, Rotondo G, Prina MG, Zubaryeva A, Sparber W

Rubén Estrada Poggio, Alyona Zubaryeva, Wolfram Sparber, Matteo Prina, Giuseppe Rotondo

Project: PNRR iNEST - Interconnected Nord-Est Innovation Ecosystem, EU Zero Emission LIFE IP - Zero Emissions Services for a Decarbonised Alpine Economy

As electric vehicle adoption grows, understanding the impact of electric vehicle charging on electricity grids becomes increasingly important. Accurate grid impact modelling requires high-quality charging infrastructure data. This study examined the electric vehicle recharging infrastructure and usage patterns in a region of the Italian Alps over a three-year period from 2021 to 2023. The primary objectives were to analyze the growth and distribution of electric vehicle charging stations, assess energy consumption, and evaluate charging behaviours across various recharging points. The research involved collecting empirical data from 411,800 recharging sessions and simulated data using the emobpy tool to model energy consumption and charging behavior. Key findings reveal a substantial increase in the number of recharging points, from 673 in 2021 to 970 in 2023, with the total energy delivered increasing from 938 MWh in 2021 to 4133 MWh in 2023. The data showed distinct temporal trends: AC points were primarily used during the day, while DC points saw higher usage during morning and late afternoon peaks, aligning with travelling times. The study’s validation of simulation results against empirical data emphasized the importance of high-quality input for accurate grid impact assessments. These findings suggest the necessity for strategic placement of recharging infrastructure and provide practical insights for policymakers, urban planners, and utility companies to support sustainable electric vehicle integration.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.3390/app14188133

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Journal article2026

Impact of sufficiency on achieving the EU's 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets

Schau Em, Golinucci N, Beltrami F, Rocco MV, Prina MG, Rinaldi L, Sparber W

Wolfram Sparber, Filippo Beltrami, Matteo Prina

Project: EU H2020 FULFILL - Fundamental Decarbonisation Through Sufficiency By Lifestyle Changes

Sufficiency therefore offers a bounded but policy-relevant complement to technological decarbonisation and warrants systematic integration into EU climate governance frameworks.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101791

Matteo Prina

About

Short Bio

Scientific Publications

Deep learning surrogate model to explain decision variable synergies in energy system modelling

Impact of sufficiency on achieving the EU's 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets

A Composite Indicator for Assessing Upscaled Energy Sufficiency and Sustainable Prosperity in the European Union

Advancing renewable energy community planning through integrated sector-coupling and economies of scale

Bridging the Industrial Data Gap: Top-down Approach from National Statistics to Site-Level Energy Consumption Data

Electrification and flexibility of process heat in energy system modelling: A review

Energy modelling challenges for the full decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors

Enhancing the impact of energy system modeling on regional policy: a case study of knowledge exchange in Piemonte Region, Italy

Klimarisiken und Anpassung - Wege zu einem klimaresilienten Südtirol

Rischi climatici e adattamento - Verso un Alto Adige resiliente al clima

The role of sufficiency measures in a decarbonizing Europe

High-Resolution Monitored Data Analysis of EV Public Charging Stations for Modelled Grid Impact Validation

Science Shots Eurac Research Newsletter

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Scientific Publications

Deep learning surrogate model to explain decision variable synergies in energy system modelling

Impact of sufficiency on achieving the EU's 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas emissions targets

A Composite Indicator for Assessing Upscaled Energy Sufficiency and Sustainable Prosperity in the European Union

Advancing renewable energy community planning through integrated sector-coupling and economies of scale

Bridging the Industrial Data Gap: Top-down Approach from National Statistics to Site-Level Energy Consumption Data

Electrification and flexibility of process heat in energy system modelling: A review

Energy modelling challenges for the full decarbonisation of hard-to-abate sectors

Enhancing the impact of energy system modeling on regional policy: a case study of knowledge exchange in Piemonte Region, Italy

Klimarisiken und Anpassung - Wege zu einem klimaresilienten Südtirol

Rischi climatici e adattamento - Verso un Alto Adige resiliente al clima

The role of sufficiency measures in a decarbonizing Europe

High-Resolution Monitored Data Analysis of EV Public Charging Stations for Modelled Grid Impact Validation