Over centuries, winegrowers in Europe have perfected their knowledge of vines and their cultivation with the aim of producing the best possible wines. In many regions, this knowledge is protected by geographical indications, such as protected designations of origin (PDO), which not only regulate the varieties, but also stipulate where these vines may be grown and the quantities that may be harvested, as well as how the wine must be produced. The PDO regulations protect consumers from imitations and regulate professional wine production throughout Europe and for a long time, it provided a clear market advantage. Simon Tscholl, co-author of the “Climate resilience of European wine regions” study, which was recently published in Nature Communications, fears that PDO areas, in which only certain vines may be cultivated due to the strict regulations, could fall behind as a result of climate change. Tscholl explains: “If the regulations stipulate only a few vines for a designated area, winegrowers have little scope to adapt to rising temperatures.” Tscholl speaks of the sensitivity of a region, which is influenced by the PDO regulations and the necessity of having to stick to a restricted set of varieties.
For his study, the biologist superimposed future climate models over a total of 1085 wine regions in order to calculate which are particularly affected by climate change. Climate models currently assume a temperature rise of between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius by 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels. “Viticulture as we know it today will therefore have to change,” Tscholl is convinced. On the one hand, the ratio of varieties will shift, and on the other, the vine will spread as a permanent crop to higher altitudes as well as expanding geographically further towards northern Europe. The simulations clearly show that the south is generally more susceptible to future climate trends, while some regions in the north could benefit to some degree. By linking the sensitivity, which includes the legally assigned grape varieties, to the climate models, the researchers clearly show which regions are particularly vulnerable compared to others. However, how well regions can adapt to climate change depends not only on the legal framework of the PDO regulations. “Social, natural, financial and personnel aspects also play a role,” explains Tscholl. Social aspects include, for example, population development and age structure, while financial aspects include the debt rate and return on investment. This additional data was also collected for all 1085 wine regions. The results of the study have now also been incorporated into the Winemap by Eurac Research. With the help of specially programmed algorithms, the sensitivity (grape varieties), susceptibility (climate change) and adaptability of all 1085 wine regions can be filtered out in comparison with just a few clicks of the mouse.
“The study and web application should help to raise awareness in order to prepare European wine regions for climate change,” explains Tscholl. In some cases, the PDO regulations need to be relaxed, in others, investments need to be made in new technologies and financing options. “Winegrowers,” Tscholl concludes, “cannot experiment at will to see whether a variety works or not. This is always associated with high costs, risks and time.”

The scientific paper: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-50549-w