Is a United Ireland on the Cards? Mary Lou McDonald ups the ante once again

Claims for Irish reunification come as no surprise; speeches of Irish politicians in the past have more often than not stressed the ultimate political goal of Irish politics enshrined in Bunreacht na hÉireann, the Irish constitution: a reunification of both parts of Ireland, that is, the 26 counties forming the Republic of Ireland and the six Northeastern Counties, sometimes erroneously called Ulster, but properly named Northern Ireland. The other two major Irish Republic parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which have dominated Irish politics since the foundation of the State in 1922 and its ensuing civil war, have largely relegated this somewhat utopian goal to the back boiler, particularly since in the run-up to the Good Friday agreement of 1998, the mandatory call for Irish Unification in the Irish Constitution was transformed into the aspiration "that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island."¹ was dropped from the Irish constitution. And in the life of ordinary people in the Republic, "nobody really worries too much about it, there are lots of other issues to worry about."

Sinn Féin, however, never dropped this demand. The party's call for reunification may have long appeared anachronistic, but recently it has been gaining increasing support in public elections and across various levels of political representation Even recent setbacks in the 2024 European Elections have not been able to stop the rise of Sinn Féin. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, have, despite their mutual dislike for each other, formed a coalition government after the last general elections in order to keep Sinn Fein at bay, which, at that stage, had become the strongest party in the Republic’s parliament Dáil Éireann. What makes the situation particularly delicate for the Republic’s already established center parties is the fact, that Sinn Féin is the only Irish party represented in both jurisdictions, and, on top of that, has an even stronger hold in the North where it provides Northern Ireland’s first minster Michelle O’Neill.

So, the timing to call for reunification again is no longer anachronistic but not only fits the current political climate in Ireland and in the UK, but also in a global political scenario where major shifts in the accepted political landscape are happening increasingly and will probably become even more palpable. Mary Lou warned the Labour Party, and thus all other political opponents, to prepare for a border poll before the end of this decade. This is quickly becoming a real option, as the trend of weakening established politics is continuing.

Flashback: In November 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell and German reunification soon entered the political dialogue East and West of the torn Iron Curtain, I was part of a group of Germans students teaching German in Irish schools as part of an exchange program. People crossed the street to congratulate us, as Germans, that we had managed to overcome the division of the country. Ireland was reveling in the good news story from Germany, indicating that something similar might be on the cards for Ireland as well – not tomorrow or the following year, but in the foreseeable future. Seemingly, this future day has now arrived, or, at least, the dawn of that day is visible on the horizon. Other than that, nothing else in Ireland compares to the situation of Germany in the early 1990s.

Back then, the European project was in its most successful phase with the integration of former Eastern European states surely being another boost to it, both politically and economically. Then, the Soviet Union was disintegrating and posed no threat. At the time, the German population was intoxicated by the prospect of reunification, albeit for different reasons in East and West. Whatever warnings or cautious voices emerged were largely ignored, and reunification was ultimately realized in October 1990. Today, I cannot detect any widespread and popular enthusiasm for reunification North or South of the Irish border.

Now, the European project is fighting for its own survival and has its focus elsewhere, is occupied with defending its political and economic position between the grinding millstones of China, Russia and the US.

Ireland in itself does not compare favorably to the Germany of 1989 – a country that was bursting with industrial energy and hopeful of being able to bring the East up to Western standards and lifestyles in a decade. Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s “blossoming landscapes” in the East became the mantra of German reunification. Germany had been divided 28 years, Ireland’s division is 100 years old, and both Irish societies have developed quite differently in this period. Not even taking into account the religious divide between Protestantism and Catholicism in the North, the Irish on either side of the border have quite a different outlook on life, their societies are structured in a different way, and the 30 year-long civil war in the North has left that society deeply battered and bruised. The Republic has not even properly faced up to the division the Civil War of 1923/4 caused in its own society, let alone found a position to deal with the fractured wreckage that is Northern Ireland’s history and politics.

Certainly, this is no feasible backdrop against which an Irish Republic, whose police system is community based, (therefore unarmed), whose army is virtually not existent and whose governmental and administrative structures are weak can be established. The Irish economy has blossomed since the country joined the EEC in 1973, but it’s self-defined sandwich position between Berlin and Boston and its overwhelming dependency on international and overseas companies and banks leaves it highly vulnerable to US tariffs as well as the potential weakening of the European common market. Ireland is in no position to take on a northern economy which in itself is not viable but requires annual booster shots from London and the British economy in general.

Mary Lou MacDonald’s speech and her embedded warning are expected to send a shudder to the current political establishment both in Dublin and London. Early signs of the potentially explosive scenario this could present have already been noted there; it was only recently that former Taoiseac, the Irish Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar said that Irish reunification was no longer a far-fetched vision, but a potential political reality in the not too distant future. Sinn Fein’s presentation at the Labour conference this weekend will certainly act as a catalyst in this discussion, both in Dublin, where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will have to find an answer to their dwindling electoral support, and in London, where the Prime Minister’s recent overwhelming support among the electorate and in his own party is disappearing like snow in the sunshine.