PEOPLELiz Olaya Calderon

Liz Olaya Calderon

Junior Researcher
Center for Climate Change and Transformation

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About

Liz is a Colombian geologist specializing in climate and disaster risk assessment. She holds a Master of Science in Geography of Environmental Risks and Human Security from the University of Bonn and the United Nations University in Germany, where she was awarded DAAD EPOS "Development-related Postgraduate Courses" Scholarship by the German Government.

Currently serving as a Junior Researcher at the Center for Climate Change and Transformation, Liz pioneers innovative methodologies for analyzing and assessing climate and disaster risks within multi-hazard frameworks. Her expertise encompasses cutting-edge approaches including system dynamics modeling, impact chain analysis, index-based risk assessment, forensic disaster analysis, and scenario-based storylines.

Her professional experience spans both academic research and practical implementation. Before her current role, Liz contributed over two years of specialized expertise to the District Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change (IDIGER) in Bogotá, Colombia, where she applied her knowledge directly to urban risk management challenges. She has further enriched her expertise through strategic internships with Global Mountain Safeguard Research (GLOMOS) at UNU-EHS and the Risk Finance and Insurance Team at GIZ.

Liz's commitment to science communication and public engagement was showcased at Science Slam Italy 2024, where she presented her compelling research on interconnected hazards titled "No Hazard is an Island," demonstrating her ability to translate complex scientific concepts for diverse audiences.

Scientific Publications

OtherContribution2025

Correlation analysis between meteorological and insurance data to support innovative insurance products for agriculture

Pilotti F, Dall‘Amico M, Olaya Calderon L, Pittore M, Bombardelli S

Massimiliano Pittore, Liz Olaya Calderon

The development of innovative insurance products for agriculture is gaining increasing attention as climate change intensifies the frequency and severity of extreme weather events. Traditional agricultural insurance models, primarily based on historical yield data and indemnity-based mechanisms, struggle to keep pace with emerging climate risks such as prolonged droughts, heatwaves, and erratic precipitation patterns. Recognising this challenge, the IMPETUS project undertook a comprehensive analysis of agricultural insurance data through task 4.14. The research team examined eight years of comprehensive insurance records provided by ITAS, including both claims and policy data. The analysis proceeded in two phases: first, an exploratory examination of claims and policy patterns to identify loss trends and geographic concentrations of claims; second, a correlation analysis linking precipitation-related losses to a composite risk index that combined hazard factors (accumulated rainfall) with vulnerability factors (crop-specific qualitative assessments).

DOI Source

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15641224

Presentation2024

Combining Impact Chains with Forensic Analysis in the analysis of compound events: insights from the Vaia windstorm case study

Romagnoli F, Cocuccioni S, Olaya Calderon LJ, Pittore M, Schneiderbauer S, Atun F, Van Westen C, Sliuzas R,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Massimiliano Pittore, Liz Olaya Calderon, Stefan Schneiderbauer

Project: Increasing Preparedness And Resilience Of European Communities By Co-Developing Services Using Dynamic Systemic Risk Assessment

Understanding causal linkages and interactions between risk components is crucial to acquire a comprehensive knowledge of natural hazard impacts and improve risk mitigation measures. Despite several advancements in risk science and hazard modelling, the understanding of dynamics and interactions characterizing compound hazards and multi-risk is still limited. Taking stock of current limitations in risk science, our contribution will present a methodology to unravel the interactions among multiple risk components in a multi-risk context. Impact Chains (ICs) are conceptual models and analytical tools to systematize and visualize the interplay among hazard impacts, compound vulnerabilities, and exposure factors, streamlining the chain of cascading impacts characterizing compound events.

Within the EU Horizon PARATUS project we implemented ICs for the analysis of past events, combining it with Forensic Analysis. Forensic Analysis provided the framework to develop the event storyline and identify core elements of impact chains. The combination of these approaches helped identify past and present risk drivers, connecting them with hazard impacts.

To show the merits of this approach, we implemented it in the analysis of Vaia windstorm. The storm hit Italy in 2018 and was characterised by high intensity rainfall and intense wind gusts. Our contribution will present most relevant risk pathways, vulnerabilities and risk drivers and their reciprocal interconnections. The methodology showcases its potential for capturing the variety of risk components, stressing the relevance of connections between physical and social elements. The analysis of past events will provide relevant insights to improve future risk reduction measures, increasing disaster preparedness and resilience.

DOI

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_40

Conference proceedings article2024

The urgent call for tangible actions to adapt regions to climate change impacts: The example of IMPETUS mountain demonstration site

D’alonzo V, Cittati VM, Leonardi E, Cocuccioni S, Olaya Calderon LJ, Pagliughi P, Rizzari M, Robbiati G,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Liz Olaya Calderon, Eleonora Leonardi

Project: EU H2020 IMPETUS - Dynamic information Management approach for the implementation of climate resilient adaptation packages in European Regions

The IMPETUS project, funded in the EU Horizon 2020 Green Deal call has, as a main objective, to turn climate commitments into tangible actions developing and validating multi-level and cross-sectoral solutions for climate change adaptation. The project aims at building communities of local stakeholders able to support strategic decision-making processes within the seven project demonstration sites. A key element of the project is the combination of digital and human dimensions to implement durable adaptation pathways that can also be replicated in similar biogeographical regions. Valle dei Laghi (located in the Italian Alps) represents the mountainous biogeographical region. In this valley, climate change is generating water stress where water resources have been typically abundant, as water scarcity is recently identified as the more urgent climate risk. Different adaptation solutions are being developed in the area, which will be described in the paper focusing on the preliminary results and the stakeholders’ engagement process: (1) Apply impact chains approach to break down risks into exposure, vulnerability, and climate hazard factors, pinpointing in which field adaptation measures need to be taken. (2) Identify and exploit the interconnected intangible and tangible components of cultural heritage that are an essential part of local identities and shared values, to detect triggers of behavioural change that can be applied in innovative climate change adaptation pathways. (3) Collaboration with insurance stakeholders for know-how and knowledge sharing to identify the best indices and forecast models that can support risk analysis and management for selected crops. (4) Development of a decision support system for improving the management of water under concurrent uses; this tool will allow better handling of conflicts among concurrent water users, i.e., energy production, human consumption, and irrigation. All these adaptation solutions will be implemented to foster and increase local authorities’ and community’s awareness and adaptive capacity.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.2495/SDP240751

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Conference proceedings article2024

The urgent call for tangible actions to adapt regions to climate change impacts: The example of IMPETUS mountain demonstration site

D’alonzo V, Cittati VM, Leonardi E, Cocuccioni S, Olaya Calderon LJ, Pagliughi P, Rizzari M, Robbiati G,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Liz Olaya Calderon, Eleonora Leonardi

Project: EU H2020 IMPETUS - Dynamic information Management approach for the implementation of climate resilient adaptation packages in European Regions

DOI Source

DOI: 10.2495/SDP240751

Liz Olaya Calderon

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Scientific Publications

Correlation analysis between meteorological and insurance data to support innovative insurance products for agriculture

Combining Impact Chains with Forensic Analysis in the analysis of compound events: insights from the Vaia windstorm case study

The urgent call for tangible actions to adapt regions to climate change impacts: The example of IMPETUS mountain demonstration site

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Scientific Publications

Correlation analysis between meteorological and insurance data to support innovative insurance products for agriculture

Combining Impact Chains with Forensic Analysis in the analysis of compound events: insights from the Vaia windstorm case study

The urgent call for tangible actions to adapt regions to climate change impacts: The example of IMPETUS mountain demonstration site