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Snowline4DailyWater

Monitoring sub-seasonal glacier mass balances and glacier melt water contribution to the total river system for Central Asia

The objective of Snowline4DailyWater is to provide sub-seasonal monitoring of glacier response to climate change and the associated melt water release for glaciers in Central Asia. For this purpose, transient snowlines derived automatically from remote sensing images will be used as a proxy for glacier surface mass balances and an energy balance model will be employed to calculate the glacier meltwater contribution. The main project outputs will be related to the development of novel approaches based on multi-source satellite data integration to map snowlines and of an operational tool enabling sub-seasonal monitoring for individual glaciers and catchments, based on the aforementioned relation. This tool will help relevant policymakers and stakeholders to improve their water resource management with a cost-effective strategy to better cope with climate change related challenges.

Contact persons:

Martina Barandun, martina.barandun@eurac.edu

Mattia Callegari, mattia.callegari@eurac.edu

Claudia Notarnicola, claudia.notarnicola@eurac.edu

Project duration: January 2021 - December 2022
Project status:
Funding:
Direct Award Contracts (Province BZ funding / Project)
Institute: Institute for Earth Observation

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Scientific Publications

Conference proceedings article2022

Glacier runoff variation since 1981 in the upper Naryn river catchments, Central Tien Shan

Saks T, Pohl E, Machguth H, Dehecq A, Barandun M, Kenzhebaev R, Kalashnikova O, Hoelzle M

Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km2. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981 - 2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin's runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4317

Journal article2022

Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan

Saks T, Pohl E, Machguth H, Dehecq A, Barandun M, Kenzhebaev R, Kalashnikova O, Hoelzle M

Water resources in Central Asia strongly depend on glaciers, which in turn adjust their size in response to climate variations. We investigate glacier runoff in the period 1981–2019 in the upper Naryn basin, Kyrgyzstan. The basins contain more than 1,000 glaciers, which cover a total area of 776 km2. We model the mass balance and runoff contribution of all glaciers with a simplified energy balance melt model and distributed accumulation model driven by ERA5 LAND re-analysis data for the time period of 1981–2019. The results are evaluated against discharge records, satellite-derived snow cover, stake readings from individual glaciers, and geodetic mass balances. Modelled glacier volume decreased by approximately 6.7 km3 or 14%, and the majority of the mass loss took place from 1996 until 2019. The decreasing trend is the result of increasingly negative summer mass balances whereas winter mass balances show no substantial trend. Analysis of the discharge data suggests an increasing runoff for the past two decades, which is, however only partly reflected in an increase of glacier melt. Moreover, the strongest increase in discharge is observed in winter, suggesting either a prolonged melting period and/or increased groundwater discharge. The average runoff from the glacierized areas in summer months (June to August) constitutes approximately 23% of the total contributions to the basin’s runoff. The results highlight the strong regional variability in glacier-climate interactions in Central Asia.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2021.780466

Journal article2022

Reconstructed Centennial Mass Balance Change for Golubin Glacier, Northern Tien Shan

Azisov E, Hoelzle M, Vorogushyn S, Saks T, Usubaliev R, Esenaman uulu M, Barandun M

Mass balance measurements for Golubin glacier in Northern Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan, have been discontinuous over the last century, with significant data gaps. We provide a unique over 100-year-long mass balance series on daily resolution. We applied a temperature index model calibrated with glaciological measurements and validated with secular mass balances derived from independent length change observations. A comparison with other recent geodetic studies reveals good agreement. Golubin lost −0.16 ± 0.45 m w.e. a−1 from 1900/1901 to 2020/2021. From the long-term mass balance time series, we identify a shift to a more negative/less positive regime with time, with a steepening of the ablation and accumulation gradients, especially for the past two decades. We observe a parallel shift of the mass balance gradient accompanied by a rotation of the ablation gradient due to increased ablation at the glacier tongue and accumulation above the equilibrium line altitude. This tendency is believed to intensify in the future, affecting glaciers’ mass balance sensitivity to changes in atmospheric conditions and year-to-year variability and resulting in irregular melt water release feeding the rivers that provide water to Bishkek. These kinds of datasets are sparse for Tien Shan and, yet, indispensable to enhancing our understanding of glacier changes in High Mountain Asia.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.3390/atmos13060954

Conference proceedings article2022

The Albedo-Ablation couple: a complex relationship with severe consequences

Naegeli K, Barandun M

Glaciers in Central Asia provide essential water resources for an increasing socio-economic water demand. However, glacier ablation is spatio-temporally highly heterogeneous, revealing hot-spots of the complex glacier response to climate change. A darkening of glacier surfaces caused by varying sources ranging from light absorbing mineral particles and black carbon to organic matter such as algal bloom, impacts the surface energy balance of glaciers. The albedo of the bare-ice surface is particularly crucial in regard to the ablation magnitude.

In this study, we present across scale results of the dependence of glacier mass balance on surface albedo for a large number of glaciers in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains. We used over 3000 surface reflectance scenes from the Landsat suite over the last two decades to produce distributed albedo maps. Annual mass balance time series are modelled using a temperature-index and distributed accumulation model for each glacier and year individually. The modelled estimates are annually calibrated with transient snowlines and further constrained by multiyear geodetic mass balances.

A comprehensive analysis of albedo variability and trends is performed at varying scales, ranging from pixel to catchment. A relationship between the distributed albedo information and the detected trends with the mass balance rates and variabilities is established. We highlight the sensitivity of glacier mass balance on surface albedo and stress the importance of the enhanced albedo feedback that will be amplified due to atmospheric warming and suspected darkening of glacier surfaces in the near future. This feedback will accelerate glacier melt and thus put the availability of melt water to river run off at sustainable risk.

DOI Source

DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6364

All Publications

Glacier runoff variation since 1981 in the upper Naryn river catchments, Central Tien Shan
Saks T, Pohl E, Machguth H, Dehecq A, Barandun M, Kenzhebaev R, Kalashnikova O, Hoelzle M (2022)
Copernicus GmbH
Conference proceedings article

Conference: EGU General Assembly 2022 | Vienna | 23.5.2022 - 27.5.2022

More information: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4317

https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4317

Reconstructed Centennial Mass Balance Change for Golubin Glacier, Northern Tien Shan
Azisov E, Hoelzle M, Vorogushyn S, Saks T, Usubaliev R, Esenaman uulu M, Barandun M (2022)
Journal article
Atmosphere

More information: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060954

https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13060954

Glacier Runoff Variation Since 1981 in the Upper Naryn River Catchments, Central Tien Shan
Saks T, Pohl E, Machguth H, Dehecq A, Barandun M, Kenzhebaev R, Kalashnikova O, Hoelzle M (2022)
Frontiers Media SA
Journal article
Frontiers in Environmental Science

More information: http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.780466

https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2021.780466

Project Team

Mattia Callegari

Paola Winkler

Daniela Dellantonio

Claudia Notarnicola

Scientific Advisory Board

Awards

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Conference proceedings article2022

The Albedo-Ablation couple: a complex relationship with severe consequences

Naegeli K, Barandun M

DOI Source

DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6364

Snowline4DailyWater