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PARATUS

Increasing Preparedness And Resilience Of European Communities By Co-Developing Services Using Dynamic Systemic Risk Assessment

Die anhaltende Pandemie und die Klimakrise haben uns harte Lektionen über die systemischen Auswirkungen sich verschlimmernder Katastrophen gelehrt. Akteure im Katastrophenrisikomanagement stehen vor der Herausforderung, ihre Richtlinien zur Risikominderung und Notfallpläne anzupassen, verfügen jedoch nicht über die Instrumente, um den sektorübergreifenden Auswirkungen und der dynamischen Natur der damit verbundenen Risiken Rechnung zu tragen. Das PARATUS-Projekt zielt darauf ab, diese Lücke zu schließen, indem es eine Open-Source-Plattform für die dynamische Risikobewertung entwickelt, die es ermöglicht, Multi-Hazard-Auswirkungsketten, Risikominderungsmaßnahmen und Katastrophenreaktionsszenarien im Lichte systemischer Schwachstellen und Unsicherheiten zu analysieren und zu bewerten. Diese Dienste werden im Rahmen eines einzigartigen transdisziplinären Konsortiums aus Forschungsorganisationen, NGOs, KMU, Erst- und Zweithelfern sowie lokalen und regionalen Behörden gemeinsam entwickelt. Um ein tieferes Verständnis der Wirkungsketten mehrerer Gefahren zu erlangen, wird PARATUS zunächst eine forensische Analyse historischer Katastrophenereignisse durchführen, historische Katastrophendatenbanken um Gefahreninteraktionen und sektorale Auswirkungen erweitern und Fernerkundungsdaten mit Methoden der künstlichen Intelligenz nutzen. Aufbauend auf diesen Erkenntnissen wird PARATUS dann neue Methoden zur Expositions- und Vulnerabilitätsanalyse entwickeln, die eine systemische Risikobewertung über Sektoren (z. B. humanitäre Hilfe, Transport, Kommunikation) und geografische Umgebungen (z. B. Inseln, Berge, Megastädte) hinweg ermöglichen. Mit diesen Methoden werden Risikoveränderungen über Raum und Zeit hinweg analysiert und gemeinsam mit Stakeholdern mithilfe innovativer Serious Games und sozialer Simulationen neue Szenarien und Optionen zur Risikominderung entwickelt.

PARATUS wird von der Europäischen Kommission im Rahmen des Horizon Europe-Programms unter der Ausschreibung CL3-2021-DRS-01-03 gefördert und läuft von 2022 bis 2026.

EURAC ist ein Kernpartner des Konsortiums und Leiter von WP1.

Ansprechpartner: silvia.cocuccioni@eurac.edu

Project duration: October 2022 - September 2026
Project status:
Funding:
Horizon Europe (EU funding / Project)
Website: https://www.paratus-project.eu/
Institutes: Center for Climate Change and Transformation , Zentrum zum Schutz und Erhalt von Gebirgsräumen

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Scientific Publications

Presentation2024

Combining Impact Chains with Forensic Analysis in the analysis of compound events: insights from the Vaia windstorm case study

Romagnoli F, Cocuccioni S, Olaya Calderon LJ, Pittore M, Schneiderbauer S, Atun F, Van Westen C, Sliuzas R,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Massimiliano Pittore, Liz Olaya Calderon, Stefan Schneiderbauer

Understanding causal linkages and interactions between risk components is crucial to acquire a comprehensive knowledge of natural hazard impacts and improve risk mitigation measures. Despite several advancements in risk science and hazard modelling, the understanding of dynamics and interactions characterizing compound hazards and multi-risk is still limited. Taking stock of current limitations in risk science, our contribution will present a methodology to unravel the interactions among multiple risk components in a multi-risk context. Impact Chains (ICs) are conceptual models and analytical tools to systematize and visualize the interplay among hazard impacts, compound vulnerabilities, and exposure factors, streamlining the chain of cascading impacts characterizing compound events.

Within the EU Horizon PARATUS project we implemented ICs for the analysis of past events, combining it with Forensic Analysis. Forensic Analysis provided the framework to develop the event storyline and identify core elements of impact chains. The combination of these approaches helped identify past and present risk drivers, connecting them with hazard impacts.

To show the merits of this approach, we implemented it in the analysis of Vaia windstorm. The storm hit Italy in 2018 and was characterised by high intensity rainfall and intense wind gusts. Our contribution will present most relevant risk pathways, vulnerabilities and risk drivers and their reciprocal interconnections. The methodology showcases its potential for capturing the variety of risk components, stressing the relevance of connections between physical and social elements. The analysis of past events will provide relevant insights to improve future risk reduction measures, increasing disaster preparedness and resilience.

DOI

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_40

Conference proceedings article2024

Local Natural Hazards, Cascading to Cross-Regional Risks and Impacts Along the Main Transit Route from North and South in the Austrian Alps

Wenzel T, Marr P, Glade T, Höfler F, Preißler A, Adams M, Cocuccioni S, Pittore M,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Massimiliano Pittore

Global environmental changes are widely visible in mountainous areas. These changes can influence the susceptibility of critical infrastructure to well documented and novel natural hazards, cascading as well as compounding risks and potentially threaten cross-border mobility. Within the scope of the EU Horizon project PARATUS, the risk in multiple application case study sites is evaluated regarding past events and future scenarios. Here, we focus on the Brenner Corridor (Austria–Italy), one of the main transit routes through the Alps for both road and rail traffic. Compounding events could potentially lead to a complete blockage of the Brenner Corridor. This demonstrates the importance of a better understanding of regional conditions to develop adjusted adaptation strategies with regard to extreme events, such as extreme wind, floods, rockfall, forest fires, landslides, or snow avalanches. In order to investigate the variety of possible challenges, participatory workshops, scenario modelling and impact chains are developed. Both historical disaster events and future scenarios are analysed. Preliminary results show the great variety of hazards and potential impacts resulting from changing environmental conditions, and the complex interaction of multiple hazards in the Brenner Corridor. Generally, stakeholders are very conscious of these challenges, have well-established concepts in place to face single hazards. However, especially the handling of compounding events and cross-border interaction still has room for improvement. The implementation of impact chains and scenario modelling can help practitioners to find adaptation and mitigation strategies for compounding and cascading hazards. Further work includes scenario modelling on different spatial and temporal scales.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_32

Conference proceedings article2024

Systemic Multi-sectoral and Multi-hazard Risk Assessment in Current and Future Scenarios. The PARATUS-Project

Hürlimann M, Marr P, Glade T, Komendantova N, de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen E, Armas I, Kundak S, Lantada N,

Silvia Cocuccioni

Systemic multi-sectoral and multi-hazard risk assessment is an important issue for stakeholders to mitigate the impacts of cascading and compounding events. The EU Horizon Europe “PARATUS”—project deals in one of its work packages with this topic and aims to define a generic methodology for systemic risk assessment. The developed methodology will be applied and tested in four study sites: (i) Alps (Austria-Italy) focusing on extreme wind, floods, landslides, heat, droughts, snow avalanches and anthropogenic hazards, (ii) the Bucharest region and hazard chains associated with large earthquakes, (iii) Caribbean Islands considering tropical storms, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and earthquake, and (iv) Istanbul, which is affected by earth-quakes-related hazards (e.g. soil liquefaction, landslides or tsunamis) and by hydrometeorological hazards (extreme temperatures, fires, and flooding). The multi-hazard assessment is performed in the four sites in current conditions and for future scenarios that incorporate climate changes as well as changes of exposure and vulnerability. On one side, the multi-hazard aspect is studied by including the occurrence of simultaneous or closely timed events (compounding), as well as the cascading hazards that may arise from their interactions. On the other side, the physical, social, environmental and systemic vulnerability is analyzed and a capacity assessment performed. Special attention is given to the uncertainty analysis of each component in the generic methodology and the future predictions to ensure the robustness and reliability of the assessment.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_37

Conference proceedings article2024

The Use of Impact Chains to Describe Complex Cause-Effect Relationships Within a Systemic Multi-sectoral and Multi-hazard Risk Assessment

Cocuccioni S, Romagnoli F, Pittore M, Armas I, Danila DT, Osaci G, Albulescu C, Göksu Ç,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Massimiliano Pittore

The occurrence of hazards and of their resulting impacts is characterised by complex interactions. Impact Chains (ICs) are conceptual models to streamline the analysis of such complex cause-effect relationships and to provide a structured framework for the comprehensive assessment of the related risks and of their components. ICs describe through an intuitive and graphical description the complex chain of cascaded impacts induced by possibly compounded natural and anthropogenic hazards. They can be built around current risks situation and extended through the identification of factors and elements related to a potential future situation. Moreover, they can be adopted to describe past disaster events through their integration with disaster forensic analysis. They are usually co-defined with domain experts in a participatory process and can be supported by desktop-analysis integrating knowledge from empirical evidence and scientific literature. Within the EU Horizon Europe “PARATUS” project, ICs are applied in four Application Case Studies (including the Caribbean, Romania, Istanbul, and Alpine areas) characterised by different hazard interactions and impacts on different sectors. Such ICs are developed though a standardized participatory methodology together with the local or regional authorities. Moreover, the analysis also encompasses several Learning Case Studies, focussing on past disaster events. The resulting ICs will be shared through the PARATUS platform to support the practitioners in the definition, analysis and quantification of the impact of multi-hazard events. This contribution focuses on the ICs methodology adopted within PARATUS while other contributions present the preliminary impact chains resulting from this.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_38

All Publications

Analysing multi-hazard risk by integrating Forensic Analysis and Impact Chains
Cocuccioni S, Olaya Calderon L, Romagnoli F (2025)
Vortrag

Conference: We4DRR annual network event | Bolzano | 8.4.2025 - 9.4.2025

Enhancing Climate Resilience in Mountain Regions through the Impact Chain Methodology: A Case Study from the South-Eastern Alps
Romagnoli F, Cocuccioni S, Olaya Calderon LJ ,Schneiderbauer S, Pittore M (2025)
Vortrag

Conference: International Climate Resilience Conference | Munich | 26.10.2025 - 29.10.2025

Weitere Informationen: https://www.geo.lmu.de/geographie/de/forschung/mensch-um ...

The Use of Impact Chains to Describe Complex Cause-Effect Relationships Within a Systemic Multi-sectoral and Multi-hazard Risk Assessment
Cocuccioni S, Romagnoli F, Pittore M, Armas I, Danila DT, Osaci G, Albulescu C, Göksu Ç, Kundak S, Arslanlı KY, Kalkanlı D, Pak EÖ, Konukçu BE, Wenzel T, Marr P, de Zeeuw-van Dalfsen E, Savelberg L, Kalubowila P, Hürlimann M, Bockarjova M, Witvliet B, van Westen C, Atun F (2024)
Beitrag in Konferenzband

Conference: 7th International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology | Antalya, Turkey | 6.11.2023 - 10.11.2023

Weitere Informationen: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-5735 ...

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_38

Project Partners

University of Bucharest

Universität Wien

Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality

BarcelonaTech

Istanbul Technical University

IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

Het Nederlandse Rode Kruis

Ministry of Internal Affairs of Romania

F INICIATIVAS

Red Cross Red Crescent Centre Climate Center

University of Twente

German Aerospace Center

Asian Institute of Technology

Deep Blue Srl

ASFINAG Alpenstraßen GmbH

Centre for systems solutions

Project Team

Silvia Cocuccioni

Project Manager

Massimiliano Pittore

Vice Manager

Federica Romagnoli

Team Member

Stefan Schneiderbauer

Technische
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Presentation2024

Combining Impact Chains with Forensic Analysis in the analysis of compound events: insights from the Vaia windstorm case study

Romagnoli F, Cocuccioni S, Olaya Calderon LJ, Pittore M, Schneiderbauer S, Atun F, Van Westen C, Sliuzas R,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Massimiliano Pittore, Liz Olaya Calderon, Stefan Schneiderbauer

DOI

DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_40

PARATUS