PEOPLEMarco Mina

de en it

Marco Mina

Senior Researcher
Institute for Alpine Environment

T +39 0471 055 302

marco.mina@eurac.edu

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7489-7688

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About

Marco Mina received his Master degree in Forestry and Environmental Science (2010) from the University of Padova, Italy, and his PhD in Forest Ecology (2015) from ETH Zürich, Switzerland. His PhD, supervised by Prof. Harald Bugmann, used dynamic modelling tools to investigate climate change impacts, adaptive forest management, and ecosystem service provision in European mountain forests. In 2016–17, he was a post-doctoral researcher at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL in Birmensdorf, Switzerland, focusing on statistical modelling with large-scale forest inventory data. From 2018 to 2021, as post-doctoral fellow at the University of Quebec in Montreal, Canada, he worked on landscape dynamic modelling and resilience-based forest management under the advisory of Prof. Christian Messier. In 2021, he joined the Institute for Alpine Environment at Eurac Research through a Marie-Curie Individual Fellowship, studying forest landscape dynamics and multi-scale forest management strategies for climate-change adaptation in Alpine forests. Author of multiple scientific journal articles and special mention at the Junior Research Award Alto Adige/Südtirol (2023).

Research interests

Forest dynamic modelling
Climate change and natural disturbances on forest ecosystems
Forest management and silviculture
Biodiversity and ecosystem services in mountain forests
Forest inventory and monitoring

Personal website

https://www.marco-mina.com/

Scientific Publications

Journal article2025

Reliability of canopy photography for forest ecology and biodiversity studies

von Meijenfeldt A, Chianucci F, Rigo F, Ottenburghs J, Hilpold A, Mina M

Andreas Hilpold, Marco Mina

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Understory is a key component of forest biodiversity. The structure of the forest stand and the horizontal composition of the canopy play a major role on the light regime of the understory, which in turn affects the abundance and the diversity of the understory plant community. Reliable assessments of canopy structural attributes are essential for forest research and biodiversity monitoring programs, as well as to study the relationship between canopy and understory plant communities. Canopy photography is a widely used method but it is still not clear which photographic techniques is better suited to capture canopy attributes at stand-level that can be relevant in forest biodiversity studies. For this purpose, we collected canopy structure and understory plant diversity data on 51 forest sites in the north-eastern Italian Alps, encompassing a diversity of forest types from low-elevation deciduous, to mixed montane stands to subalpine coniferous forests. Canopy images were acquired using both digital cover (DCP) and hemispherical (DHP) photography, and analysed canopy structural attributes. These attributes were then compared to tree species composition data to evaluate whether they were appropriate to differentiate between forest types. Additionally, we tested what canopy attributes derived from DCP and DHP best explained the species composition of vascular plants growing in the understory. We found that hemispherical canopy photography was most suitable to capture differences in forest types, which was best expressed by variables such as leaf inclination angle and canopy openness. On our sites, DHP-based canopy attributes were also able to better distinguish between different conifer forests. Leaf clumping was the most important attribute for determining plant species distribution of the understory, indicating that diverse gap structures create different microclimate conditions enhancing diverse plant species with different ecological strategies. This study supports the reliability of canopy photography to derive meaningful indicators in forest and biodiversity research, but also provide insights for increasing understory diversity in managed forests of high conservation value.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.113293

Journal article2025

Building virtual forest landscapes to support forest management: the challenge of parameterization

Mina M, Marzini S, Crespi A, Albrich K

Marco Mina, Sebastian Marzini

Projekt: Biodiversitätsmonitoring in Schutzgebieten der Region Rezia, REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Simulation models are important tools to study the impacts of climate change and natural disturbances on forest ecosystems. Being able to track tree demographic processes in a spatially explicit manner, process-based forest landscape models are considered the most suitable to provide robust projections that can aid decision-makingin forest management. However, landscape models are challenging to parameterize and setting up new study areas for application studies largely depends on data availability. The aim of this study is to demonstrate the parameterization process, including model testing and evaluation, for setting up a study area in the Italian Alps in a process-based forest landscape model using available data. We processed soil, climate, carbon pools, vegetation, disturbances and forest management data, and ran iterative spin-up simulations to generate a virtual landscape best resembling current conditions. Our results demonstrated the feasibility of initializing forest landscape models with data thatare typically available from forest management plans and national forest inventories, as well as openly available mapping products. Evaluation tests proved the ability of the model to capture the environmental constraints driving regeneration dynamics andinter-specific competition in forests of the Italian Alps, as well as to simulate natural disturbances and carbon dynamics. The model can subsequently be applied to investigate forest landscape development under a suite of future scenarios and provide recommendations for adapting forest management decisions.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.62320/fm.v2i1.19

Journal article2025

Future expansion of upper forest-grassland ecotone under land-use and climate change in the Eastern Alps

Marzini S, Tasser E, Wellstein C, Albrich K, Rammer W, Mina M

Erich Tasser, Marco Mina, Sebastian Marzini

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Context

Across Alpine landscapes, a combination of land-use abandonment and climate change is driving forest expansion and promoting the upward migration of trees on grasslands. Yet, it remains unclear how rapidly the upper forest-grassland ecotone will shift and how tree species composition will change, both in terms of species proportions and along elevational gradients.

Objectives

Our aim is to investigate the future forest expansion in a landscape in the Eastern Alps under potential grassland abandonment, climate change, natural disturbances (wind and bark beetle), and forest management.

Methods

We used the iLand forest landscape model to simulate long-term dynamics (2020–2200) under different scenarios. We coupled model outputs with the concave hull algorithm to identify potential changes in the forest-grassland ecotone, tracking tree species expansion and quantifying elevation and compositional shifts.

Results

Under a potential abandonment of alpine grasslands, forest will likely expand rapidly within the twenty-first century regardless climate warming. This because the current upper forest-grassland ecotone is mainly constrained by land use rather than climate. Our simulations also showed that ecotone shifts will be more pronounced on S-facing slopes, while climate change will affect more future tree species composition and forest stocking at higher elevations.

Conclusions

Our outcomes provide useful insights on future dynamics of the upper forest ecotone by using a forest landscape model and by integrating not only species migration and climate but also other factors such as disturbances and management. Our results could provide useful information for designing landscape management strategies in rapidly changing Alpine mountain valleys.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1007/s10980-025-02070-8

Journal article2024

A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change

Grünig M, Rammer W, Albrich K, André F, Augustynczik ALD, Bohn F, Bouwman M, Bugmann H,

Marco Mina

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Process-based forest models combine biological, physical, and chemical process understanding to simulate forest dynamics as an emergent property of the system. As such, they are valuable tools to investigate the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems. Specifically, they allow testing of hypotheses regarding long-term ecosystem dynamics and provide means to assess the impacts of climate scenarios on future forest development. As a consequence, numerous local-scale simulation studies have been conducted over the past decades to assess the impacts of climate change on forests. These studies apply the best available models tailored to local conditions, parameterized and evaluated by local experts. However, this treasure trove of knowledge on climate change responses remains underexplored to date, as a consistent and harmonized dataset of local model simulations is missing.

Here, our objectives were (i) to compile existing local simulations on forest development under climate change in Europe in a common database, (ii) to harmonize them to a common suite of output variables, and (iii) to provide a standardized vector of auxiliary environmental variables for each simulated location to aid subsequent investigations. Our dataset of European stand- and landscape-level forest simulations contains over 1.1 million simulation runs representing 135 million simulation years for more than 13,000 unique locations spread across Europe. The data were harmonized to consistently describe forest development in terms of stand structure (dominant height), composition (dominant species, admixed species), and functioning (leaf area index). Auxiliary variables provided include consistent daily climate information (temperature, precipitation, radiation, vapor pressure deficit) as well as information on local site conditions (soil depth, soil physical properties, soil water holding capacity, plant-available nitrogen). The present dataset facilitates analyses across models and locations, with the aim to better harness the valuable information contained in local simulations for large-scale policy support, and for fostering a deeper understanding of the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems in Europe.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2024.110384

Journal article2024

A perspective on the need for integrated frameworks linking species distribution and dynamic forest landscape models across spatial scales

Hof AR, Mina M, Mairota P, Aguilar F, Leitinger G, Brůna J, Koivula M, Klopčič M,

Marco Mina

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Climate change significantly alters species distributions. Numerous studies project the future distribution of species using Species Distribution models (SDMs), most often using coarse resolutions. Working at coarse resolutions in forest ecosystems fails to capture landscape-level dynamics, spatially explicit processes, and temporally defined events that act at finer resolutions and that can disproportionately affect future outcomes. Dynamic Forest Landscape Models (FLMs) can simulate the survival, growth, and mortality of (stands of) trees over long time periods at small resolutions. However, as they are able to simulate at fine resolutions, study landscapes remain relatively small due to computational constraints. The large amount of feedbacks between biodiversity, forest, and ecosystem processes cannot completely be captured by FLMs or SDMs alone. Integrating SDMs with FLMs enables a more detailed understanding of the impact of perturbations on forest landscapes and their biodiversity. Several studies have used this approach at landscape scales, using fine resolutions. Yet, many scientific questions in the fields of biogeography, macroecology, conservation management, among others, require a focus on both large scales and fine resolutions. Here, drawn from literature and experience, we provide our perspective on the most important challenges that need to be overcome to use integrated frameworks at spatial scales larger than the landscape and at fine resolutions. Future research should prioritize these challenges to better understand drivers of species distributions in forest ecosystems and effectively design conservation strategies under the influence of changing climates on spatially and temporally explicit processes. We further discuss possibilities to address these challenges.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.3389/fevo.2024.1112712

Internet2024

Advanced computational tools reveal essential forest management strategies

Mina M, Tasser E

Erich Tasser, Marco Mina

Human-driven climate change is much faster than the pace of adaptation of tree species. As a result, drastic changes are expected in forests in the coming decades, not only due to warming but also to increasing natural disturbances associated with it. Many studies have focused strictly on the effect of changing climate, but sudden changes often happen because of natural disturbances and land use impacts. With the support of the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) programme and under the supervision of Erich Tasser of Eurac Research, the REINFORCE project used spatially explicit forest models to integrate all these factors.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 3030/891671

Journal article2024

Relating forest structural characteristics to bat and bird diversity in the Italian Alps

Rigo F, Paniccia C, Anderle M, Chianucci F, Obojes N, Tappeiner U, Hilpold A, Mina M

Andreas Hilpold, Ulrike Tappeiner, Nikolaus Obojes, Marco Mina, Matteo Anderle, Chiara Paniccia

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen, Biodiversitätsmonitoring Südtirol

The global decline of biodiversity has affected European forests, involving many tree species and forest-dwelling threatened animals. An integrated approach linking forest structure and multi-taxon diversity is increasingly needed to maintain the multifunctionality of forest ecosystems. We investigated the relationship between forest structure, deadwood elements, canopy attributes, and tree-related microhabitats on bat and bird communities in the north-eastern Italian Alps. We collected forest attributes, bats, and bird data on 40 forest plots encompassing the diversity of forest types. To assess the different contributions of each forest attribute variables we performed a two-step statistical analysis using generalised and linear models, including bat and bird taxonomical and functional diversity indices as response variables. Our findings reveal that bats and birds respond differently to variation in forest structural characteristics. Specifically, bat species richness was higher in forests with both higher standing tree and lying deadwood volume. The Shannon diversity index for bird community was higher in forests with high volumes of coarse lying deadwood and stumps. Moreover, plots with mature trees, gaps, and heterogeneous diameter distribution fostered the presence of generalist species of bats and birds, while the abundance of tree-related microhabitats was not significant for these two taxa. This study demonstrates that the optimal habitat conditions for bats and birds in Alpine forests are multifaceted. Promoting distinctive elements within forest stands and a complex forest structure through adaptations in forest management interventions would enhance the conservation of multi-taxon forest biodiversity.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121673

Journal article2024

Silvicultural regime shapes understory functional structure in European forests

Chianucci F, Napoleone F, Ricotta C, Ferrara C, Fusaro L, Balducci L, Trentanovi G, Bradley O,

Marco Mina

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen, Biodiversitätsmonitoring Südtirol

Managing forests to sustain their diversity and functioning is a major challenge in a changing world. Despite the key role of understory vegetation in driving forest biodiversity, regeneration and functioning, few studies address the functional dimensions of understory vegetation response to silvicultural management.
We assessed the influence of the silvicultural regimes on the functional diversity and redundancy of European forest understory. We gathered vascular plant abundance data from more than 2000 plots in European forests, each associated with one out of the five most widespread silvicultural regimes. We used generalized linear mixed models to assess the effect of different silvicultural regimes on understory functional diversity (Rao's quadratic entropy) and functional redundancy, while accounting for climate and soil conditions, and explored the reciprocal relationship between three diversity components (functional diversity, redundancy and dominance) across silvicultural regimes through a ternary diversity diagram.
Intensive silvicultural regimes are associated with a decrease in functional diversity and an increase in functional redundancy, compared with unmanaged conditions. This means that although intensive management may buffer communities' functions against species or functional losses, it also limits the range of understory response to environmental changes.
Policy implications. Different silvicultural regimes influence different facets of understory functional features. While unmanaged forests can be used as a reference to design silvicultural practices in compliance with biodiversity conservation targets, different silvicultural options should be balanced at landscape scale to sustain the multiple forest functions that human societies are increasingly demanding.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14740

Journal article2024

Tree regeneration in models of forest dynamics: A key priority for further research

Díaz-Yáñez O, Käber Y, Anders T, Bohn F, Braziunas KH, Brůna J, Fischer R, Fischer SM,

Marco Mina

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Tree regeneration is a key process in forest dynamics, particularly in the context of forest resilience and climate change. Models are pivotal for assessing long-term forest dynamics, and they have been in use for more than 50 years. However, there is a need to evaluate their capacity to accurately represent tree regeneration. We assess how well current models capture the overall abundance, species composition, and mortality of tree regeneration. Using 15 models built to capture long-term forest dynamics at the stand, landscape, and global levels, we simulate tree regeneration at 200 sites representing large environmental gradients across Central Europe. The results are evaluated against extensive data from unmanaged forests. Most of the models overestimate recruitment levels, which is compensated only in some models by high simulated mortality rates in the early stages of individual-tree dynamics. Simulated species diversity of recruitment generally matches observed ranges. Models simulating higher stand-level species diversity do not feature higher species diversity in the recruitment layer. The effect of light availability on recruitment levels is captured better than the effects of temperature and soil moisture, but patterns are not consistent across models. Increasing complexity in the tree regeneration modules is not related to higher accuracy of simulated tree recruitment. Furthermore, individual model design is more important than scale (stand, landscape, and global) and approach (empirical and process-based) for accurately capturing tree regeneration. Despite the mismatches between simulation results and data, it is remarkable that most models capture the essential features of the highly complex process of tree regeneration, while not having been parameterized with such data. We conclude that much can be gained by evaluating and refining the modeling of tree regeneration processes. This has the potential to render long-term projections of forest dynamics under changing environmental conditions much more robust.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.4807

Journal article2023

A trait-based approach to both forestry and timber building can synchronize forest harvest and resilience

Osborne P, Aquilué N, Mina M, Moe K, Jemtrud M, Messier C

Marco Mina

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Along with forest managers, builders are key change agents of forest ecosystems’ structure and composition through the specification and use of wood products. New forest management approaches are being advocated to increase the resilience and adaptability of forests to climate change and other natural disturbances. Such approaches call for a diversification of our forests based on species’ functional traits that will dramatically change the harvested species composition, volume, and output of our forested landscapes. This calls for the wood-building industry to adapt its ways of operating. Accordingly, we expand the evaluation of the ecological resilience of forest ecosystems based on functional diversification to include a trait-based approach to building with wood. This trait-based plant-building framework can illustrate how forecasted forest changes in the coming decades may impact and guide decisions about wood-building practices, policies, and specifications. We apply this approach using a fragmented rural landscape in temperate southeastern Canada. We link seven functional groups based on the ecological traits of tree species in the region to a similar functional grouping of building traits to characterize the push and pull of managing forests and wood buildings together. We relied on a process-based forest landscape model to simulate long-term forest dynamics and timber harvesting to evaluate how various novel management approaches will interact with the changing global environment to affect the forest-building relationships. Our results suggest that adopting a whole system, plant-building approach to forests and wood buildings, is key to enhancing forest ecological and timber construction industry resilience.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad254

Journal article2023

Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps

Hillebrand L, Marzini S, Crespi A, Hiltner U, Mina M

Marco Mina, Alice Crespi, Sebastian Marzini

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

Protection forests play a key role in protecting settlements, people, and infrastructures from gravitational hazards such as rockfalls and avalanches in mountain areas. Rapid climate change is challenging the role of protection forests by altering their dynamics, structure, and composition. Information on local-and regional-scale impacts of climate change on protection forests is critical for planning adaptations in forest management. We used a model of forest dynamics (ForClim) to assess the succession of mountain forests in the Eastern Alps and their protective effects under future climate change scenarios. We investigated eleven representative forest sites along an elevational gradient across multiple locations within an administrative region, covering wide differences in tree species structure, composition, altitude, and exposition. We evaluated protective performance against rockfall and avalanches using numerical indices (i.e., linker functions) quantifying the degree of protection from metrics of simulated forest structure and composition. Our findings reveal that climate warming has a contrasting impact on protective effects in mountain forests of the Eastern Alps. Climate change is likely to not affect negatively all protection forest stands but its impact depends on site and stand conditions. Impacts were highly contingent to the magnitude of climate warming, with increasing criticality under the most severe climate projections. Forests in lower-montane elevations and those located in dry continental valleys showed drastic changes in forest structure and composition due to drought-induced mortality while subalpine forests mostly profited from rising temperatures and a longer vegetation period. Overall, avalanche protection will likely be negatively affected by climate change, while the ability of forests to maintain rockfall protection depends on the severity of expected climate change and their vulnerability due to elevation and topography, with most subalpine forests less prone to loosing protective effects. Proactive measures in management should be taken in the near future to avoid losses of protective effects in the case of severe climate change in the Alps. Given the heterogeneous impact of climate warming, such adaptations can be aided by model-based projections and high local resolution studies to identify forest stand types that might require management priority for maintaining protective effects in the future.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1240235

Journal article2023

Forest management scenarios drive future dynamics of Mediterranean planted pine forests under climate change

Suárez-Muñoz M, Bonet-García FJ, Navarro-Cerrillo R, Herrero J, Mina M

Marco Mina

Context

Planted pine forests are highly abundant communities in the Mediterranean Basin. Being the result of past reforestation, these forests show high species and structural homogeneity. Diversification to conifer-broadleaved mixed forests is recommended to promote adaptation to climate change and increase their resilience to perturbations.

Objectives

This study aims at evaluating how these planted pine forests will develop in the future as a result of the combined impacts of management and climate.

Methods

We applied a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate different climate scenarios and management strategies designed in cooperation with forest managers to assess their effects on the performance of planted pine forests and their change in terms of forest composition.

Results

Climate change scenarios caused a shift in the phenological growth pattern of planted pine forests by reducing forest growth during summer and increasing photosynthetic productivity in spring and fall, particularly under high emission scenarios. Biomass increased through time and more strongly under climate change, but this increase differs among species, resulting in changes of forest types across the landscape. Our results portray natural succession as the main driver of forest change, but intensive management accelerated this process by limiting pine growth and promoting growth of oak species.

Conclusions

Our results highlight the importance of active management on planted pine forests to favour mixed and climate-adapted ecosystems in shorter time scales than offered by succession alone. Moreover, our spatially explicit modelling approach helps to identify areas where lack of seed dispersal and/or competitive exclusion prevent natural diversification, providing useful recommendations for interventions. However, the modelling approach has some limitations since it does not consider natural disturbances.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1007/s10980-023-01678-y

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Journal article2023

Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps

Hillebrand L, Marzini S, Crespi A, Hiltner U, Mina M

Marco Mina, Alice Crespi, Sebastian Marzini

Projekt: REINFORCE: Integriertes Landschaftsmanagement für resiliente Bergwälder unter globalen Veränderungen

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1240235

Marco Mina

About

Scientific Publications

Reliability of canopy photography for forest ecology and biodiversity studies

Building virtual forest landscapes to support forest management: the challenge of parameterization

Future expansion of upper forest-grassland ecotone under land-use and climate change in the Eastern Alps

Context

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change

A perspective on the need for integrated frameworks linking species distribution and dynamic forest landscape models across spatial scales

Advanced computational tools reveal essential forest management strategies

Relating forest structural characteristics to bat and bird diversity in the Italian Alps

Silvicultural regime shapes understory functional structure in European forests

Tree regeneration in models of forest dynamics: A key priority for further research

A trait-based approach to both forestry and timber building can synchronize forest harvest and resilience

Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps

Forest management scenarios drive future dynamics of Mediterranean planted pine forests under climate change

Context

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

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Externe Inhalte

Scientific Publications

Reliability of canopy photography for forest ecology and biodiversity studies

Building virtual forest landscapes to support forest management: the challenge of parameterization

Future expansion of upper forest-grassland ecotone under land-use and climate change in the Eastern Alps

Context

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions

A harmonized database of European forest simulations under climate change

A perspective on the need for integrated frameworks linking species distribution and dynamic forest landscape models across spatial scales

Advanced computational tools reveal essential forest management strategies

Relating forest structural characteristics to bat and bird diversity in the Italian Alps

Silvicultural regime shapes understory functional structure in European forests

Tree regeneration in models of forest dynamics: A key priority for further research

A trait-based approach to both forestry and timber building can synchronize forest harvest and resilience

Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps

Forest management scenarios drive future dynamics of Mediterranean planted pine forests under climate change

Context

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusions