GGS

As part of a larger Interreg Project, our team is responsible for the habitat modeling work package as a subcontractor. The aim is to use ecological modeling to assess how suitable habitats for the Alpine ibex in South Tyrol may shift under various future climate scenarios.

The study focuses on identifying areas within the South Tyrolean Alps where habitat may remain available, emerge, or disappear over time. Climate change affects key environmental factors such as snow cover, vegetation dynamics, and temperature—each of which plays a crucial role in shaping the seasonal habitat requirements of the ibex. Particularly important are the differences between summer and winter habitats, as the species has distinct needs in each season and may be either limited or supported by climate-driven changes.

The results will contribute to a deeper understanding of how ibex habitats may evolve in the long term and which regions in South Tyrol could continue to serve as suitable habitats in the future. This knowledge will provide important decision support for wildlife managers and conservation planners, helping to balance biodiversity protection with other land-use priorities in alpine regions.

Planned activities include:

• Data compilation & preprocessing: Gathering and harmonizing spatial data on topography, climate, vegetation, and snow cover for South Tyrol.

• Climate scenario integration: Incorporating multiple regional climate projections (e.g., RCP/SSP scenarios) to capture uncertainties in future developments.

• Habitat modeling: Developing seasonal species distribution models (SDMs) for ibex, differentiating between summer and winter habitat requirements.

• Spatial analyses: Identifying current and potential future refugia, range contractions, and newly suitable areas.

• Validation: Comparing model outputs with existing GPS telemetry and monitoring data of Alpine ibex populations.​​​​​​​

• Final synthesis: Delivering maps, reports, and recommendations on long-term ibex habitat conservation under climate change.