PEOPLEMarc Zebisch

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Marc Zebisch

Head of Center
Center for Climate Change and Transformation

T +39 0471 055 372

marc.zebisch@eurac.edu

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3530-7219

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About

Auswirkungen des Klimawandels im Gebirge (Alpen, Gebirge weltweit)
Bewertung des systemischen Klimarisikos
Integration von quantitativen Daten und Methoden (Klimadaten, Erdbeobachtung, Modellierung) mit qualitativen und partizipativen Ansätzen
Transfer vom Verständnis der Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel
Risiken des Klimawandels und Anpassung an den Klimawandel in Entwicklungsländern
Integration der Paradigmen der Katastrophenrisikominderung (DRR) und der Anpassung an den Klimawandel (CCA)

Kurzbiographie

Marc Zebisch hat am Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung und der TU-Berlin promoviert und erforscht seit über 15 Jahren mit Klimafolgenforschung und Klimarisikobewertung. Bei Eurac Research beschäftigt er sich mit den Folgen des Klimawandels in Südtirol und den Klimarisiken in anderen Regionen und Berggebieten. Er hat maßgeblich an den Klimarisikobewertungen für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland mitgewirkt (link), und ist Mitglied im Themencenter Klimawandel und Anpassung der Europäischen Umweltbehörde (EEA-ETC_CCA), im Lenkungsausschuss des Österreichischen Klimaforschungsprogramms (ACRP), sowie im Klimarat der Alpenkonvention (ACB). Er ist Leitautor des "Climate Risk Sourcebook", einer Methodensammlung für Klimarisikobewertungen die in mehr als 20 Ländern Awendung gefunden hat. (link). Außerdem war er für die Methodenentwicklung für die erste Europäische Klimarisikobewertung (EUCRA) der Europäischen Umweltagentur (EEA) verantwortlich.

Scientific Publications

Journal article2026

Recent and future variability in 1-day precipitation extremes in Trentino - South Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps) based on observations (1956-2023) and climate model projections

Maines E, Crespi A, Pittore M, Zebisch M

Massimiliano Pittore, Marc Zebisch, Alice Crespi, Elena Maines

Precipitation extremes are some of the most impactful events in mountain environments due to their triggering potential for hazards, such as gravitational mass movements and floods, damaging human settlements and economic activities. Intensifying extreme precipitation has been documented for the Alps and projected for the future decades, although with substantial spatial variability. Understanding ongoing and future changes in heavy precipitation characteristics on a regional scale is crucial for informing risk-oriented applications and supporting local adaptation. This study presents a comprehensive assessment of 1-day precipitation extremes in Trentino – South Tyrol (eastern Italian Alps), based on past observations and climate model projections. We analyze observed trends and variability in intensity over the period 1956-2023 and assess changes under future global warming levels. A regional frequency analysis adopting a data-pooling approach is applied to estimate current and future occurrence probabilities of 1-day precipitation extremes. Increasing intensity and frequency are observed, with significant trends mostly in the northern part of the region, especially for autumn, summer and on an annual level. However, the long-term signal reveals decadal variations and a more pronounced increase over recent years. Greater intensity and frequency are also projected for the future throughout the region with major changes for higher warming levels and rarer events. Precipitation events like the one recorded during the exceptional Vaia Storm (October 2018) turn out to be more probable today than in earlier decades, and their recurrence interval is projected to further decrease by more than 50 % under the highest warming scenarios.

DOI

DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100880

Journal article2025

climdex-kit: an open software for climate index calculation, sharing and analysis towards tailored climate services

Campalani P, Crespi A, Pittore M, Zebisch M

Piero Campalani, Massimiliano Pittore, Marc Zebisch, Alice Crespi

The paper presents the open-source software climdex-kit which includes modules to compute, analyze and visualize climate indices based on the input data, target domain and temporal extent defined by the user. It is intended to ease the retrieval and interpretation of meaningful information for climate change studies and support the development of climate services for sectoral applications with flexible options for tailoring the expected outputs. It currently includes the computation of 38 indices based on temperature and precipitation, describing both mean and extreme climate conditions, and it is designed to work with multi-model ensembles of climate projections. The tool is written in Python and integrates utilities from the well-established Climate Data Operators (CDO) and NetCDF Operators (NCO) libraries. The specific capabilities for filtering, aggregating and visualizing insightful information out of the computed indices ensembles make this software rather unique in the still rich landscape of available akin libraries, and are thought to help users to produce tailored results improving the understanding and communication of future climate change. The package climdex-kit can be used directly in interactive Python shells or be integrated as a building block in more complex data processing workflows. New indices can be easily configured and the software can be re-used on the spatial and temporal domains required by the specific application. Moreover, with its utilities to publish the climate indices in open catalogues, this software can be a one stop shop for a FAIR and simplified computation and management of such complex multi-scenario settings. To show the functionalities of the package as well as its potential use for conducting regional climate assessments, the application of climdex-kit to an ensemble of climate model projections for the Trentino – South Tyrol region (north-eastern Italy) is presented. Examples of derived information for a selection of indices are reported and different visualization options discussed.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106442

Journal article2025

Integrated risk analyses as part of national climate risk assessments: lessons learnt from the climate risk assessment of Germany

Kahlenborn W, Voss M, Porst L, Zebisch M, Renner K, Schauser I

Kathrin Renner, Marc Zebisch

Projekt: Klimawirkungs- und Risikoanalyse für Deutschland 2021

Purpose

Climate risk assessments (CRAs) become more and more necessary to prepare and prioritise adaptation action. On a policy level, the results of CRAs offer the foundation for national adaptation strategies. However, existing CRAs oftentimes do not exploit their full potential by means of an integrated assessment, i.e. to illustrate the complexity of cascading risks, provide cross-sectoral results, integrate adaptive capacity and demonstrate spatial patterns. This paper seeks to fill this gap by dissecting integrated assessment approaches of national CRAs.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper focuses on the integrated analyses of the results of CRAs. Based on a review of selected national, multi-sectoral CRAs, the authors explore the application of such analyses. Additionally, drawing on the latest climate impact and risk assessment for Germany, the authors highlight latest approaches and their implications.

Findings

The authors show that even though progress in establishing integrated assessment methods has been made, no common framework exists so far and only few national CRAs include extensive integrated analyses. Nevertheless, the German example demonstrates that integrated analyses can provide a comprehensive overview over risk dynamics, (spatial) patterns and needs for action thus providing practical advice for decision-making on a national adaptation policy level.

Originality/value

While it is common knowledge that CRAs in general provide better results, if the models applied are integrated (i.e. combining climate, geo-physical, economic, etc. factors), little attention has been given to the integrated analyses of their results. This paper provides valuable new insight on this aspect which will become far more important in the future.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1108/IJCCSM-10-2023-0128

Report2025

Klimarisiken und Anpassung - Wege zu einem klimaresilienten Südtirol

Zebisch M, Pedoth L, Pörnbacher M, Renner K, Fritsch U, Alberton M, Bertoldi G, Bisignano J,

Chiara Pellegrini, Mariachiara Alberton, Giacomo Bertoldi, Federica Maino, Uta Fritsch, Andreas Hilpold, Andrea Omizzolo, Wolfram Sparber, Nikolaus Obojes, Lydia Pedoth, Kathrin Renner, Marc Zebisch, Alice Crespi, Philipp Corradini, Giacomo Strapazzon, Chiara Crippa, Christian Hoffmann, Matteo Prina, Giulia Roveri

Projekt: Entwicklung einer Klimaanpassungsstrategie für die Autonome Provinz Bozen, Umweltrecht und -politik in Mehrebenensystemen, Eco-Hydrologie alpiner Einzugsgebiete

Der Bericht „Klimarisiken und Anpassung – Wege zu einem klimaresilienten Südtirol“ untersucht die möglichen Klimafolgen und Klimarisiken sowie deren Ursachen für Südtirol für neun Sektoren und schlägt Strategien und Maßnahmenbündel für eine notwendige Klimaanpassung vor. Er soll die Klimaanpassungsstrategie des Landes vorbereiten sowie informieren und setzt daher die Schwerpunkte auf Klimarisiken, die weite Teile Südtirols oder mehrere Systeme, Sektoren oder Handlungsfelder gleichzeitig betreffen und sich kaskadenartig ausbreiten. Außerdem fokussiert diese Studie auf Anpassungsstrategien und Maßnahmen (wie z.B. Politikinstrumente), die auf der Ebene der Provinz eingeführt und umgesetzt werden sollten, und weniger auf technische Maßnahmen in einzelnen Handlungsfeldern.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.57749/4ehb-1753

Report2025

Reflection paper for EUCRA-2

Zebisch M, Casartelli V, Biesbroek R, Cocuccioni S, Kirkels F, Klein R, Mikaelsson M, Munck af Rosenschöld J,

Silvia Cocuccioni, Massimiliano Pittore, Marc Zebisch

Projekt: European Topic Centre on Climate change Adaptation and LULUCF

This reflection paper supports the early scoping of the second European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA-2). It builds on the direct experience and lessons learned by the authors, who were part of the core team that developed the first EUCRA (EUCRA-1). The paper was informed by a series of expert discussions between January and May 2025, including an in-person workshop at the EEA in Copenhagen. The document incorporates input from the Joint Research Centre (JRC), ECMWF, and insights from informal consultations by DG CLIMA. Aimed primarily at the EUCRA-2 Steering Group, it explores the policy context, scope, methodology, and potential chapter structure of EUCRA-2, while stressing continuity with EUCRA-1 and alignment with relevant international, EU and national initiatives. Although not a substitute for formal scoping by the EEA, DG CLIMA, and EUCRA-2 project partners, it offers preliminary reflections and suggestions to inform the future process.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.25424/cmcc-2y5q-z607

Report2025

Rischi climatici e adattamento - Verso un Alto Adige resiliente al clima

Zebisch M, Pedoth L, Pörnbacher M, Renner K, Fritsch U, Alberton M, Bertoldi G, Bisignano J,

Projekt: Entwicklung einer Klimaanpassungsstrategie für die Autonome Provinz Bozen

Il documento “Rischi climatici e adattamento – Verso un Alto Adige resiliente al clima” analizza i possibili impatti, i rischi climatici e le loro cause per l’Alto Adige in nove settori e propone strategie e pacchetti di misure per il necessario adattamento. Lo scopo è quello di preparare e informare la strategia di adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici della Provincia; pertanto, si concentra sui rischi climatici che interessano vaste zone dell'Alto Adige o che colpiscono contemporaneamente diversi sistemi, settori o campi d'azione e si diffondono a cascata. Inoltre, questo studio si concentra sulle strategie e sulle misure di adattamento (come gli strumenti politici) che dovrebbero essere introdotte e implementate a livello provinciale, piuttosto che sulle misure tecniche nei singoli campi di azione.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.57749/q8y8-tv70

Journal article2025

Risk Storylines: A Community-Led Discussion between Disaster and Climate Science

Cocuccioni S, Pittore M, Zebisch M, Schneiderbauer S, Shepherd TG, Casartelli V, Crummy J, Pedde S

Silvia Cocuccioni, Massimiliano Pittore, Marc Zebisch, Stefan Schneiderbauer

Projekt: Wie kann die Anpassung an sich verändernde Wetterextreme und damit verbundene Risiken im Kontext des Klimawandels erfolgen, RETURN - multi-Risk sciEnce for resilienT commUnities undeR a changiNg climate

An international workshop brought together researchers and practitioners to exchange experiences in developing and applying climate and disaster risk storylines. Discussions focused on integrating quantitative and qualitative evidence and on expanding storylines to include nonclimatic risk drivers such as exposure, vulnerability, and their underlying drivers. The event featured a dynamic blend of high-level keynote talks, case studies, practical sessions, and poster presentations. Participants engaged in lively discussions, shared insights, and collaborated on hands-on activities aimed at developing actionable risk storylines

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0155.1

Inbook2024

Chapter 20 - Where climate change hits vulnerable systems—major climate risks in European mountains

Zebisch M, Crespi A, Schneiderbauer S, Bustillos Ardaya A

Marc Zebisch, Alice Crespi, Stefan Schneiderbauer

This chapter discusses climate risks for social–ecological systems in European mountains and some underlying root causes. It is based on a literature review including policy-oriented reports, the authors’ experience, and a nonrepresentative online survey among scientists and practitioners from different mountain regions in Europe.

We discuss that European mountains share a particular vulnerability to climate change with mountain ranges all over the world. Melting glaciers and reducing snow cover result in a water regime change. Furthermore, climate change has a measurable impact on biodiversity, the frequency and intensity of climate extremes such as heatwaves as well as natural hazards. However, in contrast to many others, European mountains are at least in part highly developed. This is particularly apparent in the larger valley bottoms where there is often competition for land use between intensive agriculture, densely populated settlements, major transport lines, and other infrastructure. Furthermore, European mountains host millions of visitors every year for winter as well as summer tourism. This high intensity of human activities elevates exposure and partly also vulnerability to climate-related hazards and impacts.

This chapter shows that there is an overall clarity in data and perception about the main climate-related hazards in mountainous areas in Europe and their potential direct impacts. However, the contribution of exposure and vulnerability to climate risks as well as cascading hazards and impacts and the resulting risks for social–ecological systems in European mountains require deeper understanding and represent crucial research questions.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-443-32824-4.00041-9

Journal article2024

Climate change and human health in Alpine environments: an interdisciplinary impact chain approach understanding today's risks to address tomorrow's challenges

Roveri G, Crespi A, Eisendle F, Rauch ‍‍S, Corradini Ph, Steger S, Zebisch M, Strapazzon G

Marc Zebisch, Alice Crespi, Giacomo Strapazzon, Giulia Roveri

Projekt: Entwicklung einer Klimaanpassungsstrategie für die Autonome Provinz Bozen, PNRR iNEST - Vernetztes Nord-Ost-Innovations-Ökosystem

The European Alps, home to a blend of permanent residents and millions of annual tourists, are found to be particularly sensitive to climate change. This article employs the impact chain concept to explore the interplay between climate change and health in Alpine areas, offering an interdisciplinary assessment of current and future health consequences and potential adaptation strategies.Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and increasing extreme weather events have profound implications for the Alpine regions. Temperatures have risen significantly over the past century, with projections indicating further increases and more frequent heatwaves. These trends increase the risk of heat-related health issues especially for vulnerable groups, including the elderly, frail individuals, children and recreationists. Furthermore, changing precipitation patterns, glacier retreat and permafrost melting adversely impact slope stability increasing the risk of gravity-driven natural hazards like landslides, avalanches and rockfalls. This poses direct threats, elevates the risk of multi-casualty incidents and strains search and rescue teams.The environmental changes also impact Alpine flora and fauna, altering the distribution and transmission of vector-borne diseases. Such events directly impact healthcare administration and management programmes, which are already challenged by surges in tourism and ensuring access to care.In conclusion, Alpine regions must proactively address these climate change-related health risks through an interdisciplinary approach, considering both preventive and responsive adaptation strategies, which we describe in this article.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014431

Inbook2024

Earth Observation tools to monitor and protect mountain environment: current challenges and future perspectives

Notarnicola C, Callegari M, Castelli M, Cuozzo G, De Gregorio L, Greifeneder F, Jacob A, Marin C,

Giovanni Cuozzo, Ruth Sonnenschein, Mattia Callegari, Massimiliano Pittore, Alexander Jacob, Claudia Notarnicola, Mariapina Castelli, Carlo Marin, Marc Zebisch

Mountain regions are biodiversity hotspots, support a great diversity of habitats and species, and provide numerous ecosystem services for lowland areas. At the same time, mountain areas are very sensitive environments because of their peculiarities, and are considered as sentinel of climate changes. In fact, despite large uncertainties (Kohler et al., 2014; Stocker et al., 2013), the temperature increase in mountains doubles the global average (Kohler et al., 2014) and several parameter changes (e.g., albedo, snow cover) intensify with altitude (Notarnicola, 2020; Pepin et al., 2015). The importance of mountains is acknowledged and supported by numerous global initiatives. The United Nations included mountain ecosystem conservation in its Sustainable Development Goals and in 2019 the GEO Mountain called for the identification of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) for high altitudes (Adler, 2018a, 2018b; Shahgedanova et al., 2021; Thornton et al., 2021). Moreover, GEO Mountain is aiming at supporting the different UN frameworks and has a relevant role in several policy agendas such as the Intergovernmental SciencePolicy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement, and assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With the advent of the Copernicus era, Earth Observation (EO) tools in terms of imagery, platforms, and software offer a unique opportunity to continuously monitor the mountain environment and provide valuable information for its protection and safety. This chapter addresses the current and future challenges of EO observations in the different sectors, going from the cryosphere to water resources and agriculture, to ecosystems, and to gravity-driven natural hazards. Current data and processing platforms are presented to provide an overview of the plethora of information and tools now made available to researchers and practitioners. In this chapter, we selected these sectors based on our experience in several national and international projects, where EO data play a major role. Moreover, the analysis of these sections can provide a connection thread on how the changes in snow and glaciers impact the water resources and then consequently agriculture and ecosystems. It is out of the scope of this chapter to draw a complete picture of all the sectors that can be affected by climate changes.

DOI

DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-822095-5.00014-0

Journal article2023

Analysing spatial patterns of climate change: Climate clusters, hotspots and analogues to support climate risk assessment and communication in Germany

Crespi A, Renner K, Zebisch M, Schauser I, Leps N, Walter A

Kathrin Renner, Marc Zebisch, Alice Crespi

The spatial visualization of current and future climate conditions is one key component for assessing related impacts and risks in a given territory. A suitable combination of statistical methods and visualisation techniques allows the creation of outputs that support the interpretation and understanding as well as communication of the complex climate analysis to a wider target audience. The present paper describes the adopted approaches to portray information about climate change in Germany until the end of the 21st century in meaningful maps with the aim to communicate it to the public as well as decision makers. In particular, the conducted analyses focused on the assessment of climate regions, climate hotspots and climate analogues. The maps showing the resulting spatial patterns 1) divide the country in seven climate clusters, 2) reveal different hotspot areas of climate change in terms of key indicators for the middle and the end of the century and 3) provide current and future climate shifts of German cities to analogue regions in Europe. Results are accompanied with recommendations and interpretation aids supporting the correct use for practical applications and communication purposes. The final map products resulting from these analyses and published in the frame of the Climate Impact and Risk Assessment for Germany 2021 were taken up by different national media outlets (print and audio), education experts as well as stakeholders, showing benefits and limitations of the visualisation choices.

DOI

DOI: 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100373

Journal article2023

Research advancements for impact chain based climate risk and vulnerability assessments

Petutschnig L, Rome E, Lückerath D, Milde K, Gerger Swartling Å, Aall C, Meyer M, Jordá G,

Kathrin Renner, Marc Zebisch

Projekt: UNCHAIN – eine neue Generation von anwendungs- und nutzerorientierten Klimarisikoassessments

As the climate crisis continues to worsen, there is an increasing demand for scientific evidence from Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVA). We present 12 methodological advancements to the Impact Chain-based CRVA (IC-based CRVA) framework, which combines participatory and data-driven approaches to identify and measure climate risks in complex socio-ecological systems. The advancements improve the framework along five axes, including the existing workflow, stakeholder engagement, uncertainty management, socio-economic scenario modeling, and transboundary climate risk examination. Eleven case studies were conducted and evaluated to produce these advancements. Our paper addresses two key research questions: (a) How can the IC-based CRVA framework be methodologically advanced to produce more accurate and insightful results? and (b) How effectively can the framework be applied in research and policy domains that it was not initially designed for? We propose methodological advancements to capture dynamics between risk factors, to resolve contradictory worldviews, and to maintain consistency between Impact Chains across policy scales. We suggest using scenario-planning techniques and integrating uncertainties via Probability Density Functions and Reverse Geometric Aggregation. Our research examines the applicability of IC-based CRVAs to address transboundary climate risks and integrating macro-economic models to reflect possible future socio-economic exposure. Our findings demonstrate that the modular structure of IC-based CRVA allows for the integration of various methodological advancements, and further advancements are possible to better assess complex climate risks and improve adaptation decision-making.

DOI Quelle

DOI: 10.3389/fclim.2023.1095631

Technische
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Inbook2024

Earth Observation tools to monitor and protect mountain environment: current challenges and future perspectives

Notarnicola C, Callegari M, Castelli M, Cuozzo G, De Gregorio L, Greifeneder F, Jacob A, Marin C,

Giovanni Cuozzo, Ruth Sonnenschein, Mattia Callegari, Massimiliano Pittore, Alexander Jacob, Claudia Notarnicola, Mariapina Castelli, Carlo Marin, Marc Zebisch

DOI

DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-822095-5.00014-0